On Tuesday, a “yes/no” vote, decided by simple majority, will determine whether or not the United Kingdom will remain a part of the European Union. As voters across the UK weigh in on the future of their country, it’s fair to ask what – if anything – does a vote taking place 3,000 miles away in England mean for us here in New England?
In all likelihood, not much will change for the average Bay Stater, no matter which way the so-called “Brexit” vote goes on Thursday. Sure, the world markets will react, but Chris Probyn, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, says not to worry too much about that.
“I don’t think it’s gonna really affect your pocket book a great deal,” he said.
Still, there are those in the area who are watching more closely than others – especially in the tech, life sciences and financial services sectors. Plenty of local companies have branches in the UK – giving them access to the European market. Should Britain leave the EU, those companies will have some figuring out to do.
“Britain, via its membership of the European Union, has 53 trade arrangements with the rest of the world which it would instantaneously lose,” explained Probyn. “There’ll be a lot of uncertainty surrounding investment in the British economy.”
And then there are the folks like Probyn – British expats living here in New England.
“We think there are about 70,000 British nationals living and working across New England,” said Susie Kitchens, Britain’s Consul General for New England.
That’s roughly equivalent to population of Framingham or Somerville. Among those 70,000 are some pretty high profile folks, including Dunkin’ Donuts CEO Nigel Travis and Stephen Blyth, head of Harvard’s endowment who’s on temporary medical leave.
UK-based companies also employ plenty of people right here in Massachusetts.
“We think there are about 40,000 people in Massachusetts who work for a British company here, so it’s not just effecting our nationals but a lot of Massachusetts people as well who are dependent on those British companies,” said Kitchens.
Among those companies are consulting firm Radius Worldwide, fashion house Ted Baker and National Grid, to name just a few.
A vote to stay – of course – maintains the status quo. And State Street’s Probyn says that the effects of an exit would likely be mitigated by a long transition period – over a course of years. But there is one thing he does expect would happen right away.
“Oh, I think if they vote to leave the pound will probably hit multiyear lows,” he said.
The upside there is that if you’ve always wanted to visit England, your dollar will go a little further.
“Yeah, well that’s true. You’ll be able to afford to stay in a slightly better hotel and buy a slightly better meal and so on,” said Probyn.
Of course the downside is that you won’t be able to officially call your trip a European vacation.
