BILL A week ago everyone thought we could go Sunday everyone, a week ago Sunday trump’s going to win Iowa. All the polls show that. And if he won Iowa. She probably win New Hampshire would he be stoppable? Cruz beat him in Iowa. And that's why I wrote the editorial and which I say be careful to the Republican establishment don't assume just because Ted Cruz beat him by four points or something like that the trumpets gotten. But anyway most people ignored that. Then Cruz didn't get much of a bump out of Iowa surprisingly as the Iowa winter. In the story was Rubio surgeon from his third place victory in Iowa. And I thought he may well catch Trump here in New Hampshire or at least come close, and be very very formidable. And then a pretty disastrous moment in the debate Saturday night. People overdo the debate analysis we all watch it intently and then we judge it the way Olympic judges judge skating, this jump wasn’t quite perfect. But I think this was a rare moment Where something happened that might stick. And fairly or unfairly just distance that Rubio didn't respond in the moment and sorta froze up or whatever.
JIM You say we tend to overdo it let's overdo it for a couple of minutes. The amazing thing we're sitting there in the spin room and not only would want to soon a smart guy like Rubio was ready for every word out of Christie's mouth even though he delivered them I think quite skillfully. But this whole repetition thing with this line that was like an SNL kind of line that Barack Obama knows exactly what he’s doing. And then today when you wake up even if you didn't see the debate and you see all the new stations playing the sequentially, it's like Rick Perry forgetting the third cabinet secretary he wanted to get rid of No?
BILL No I think Perry’s a good analogy. That really damaged Perry because people already thought is he up to the job and then he forgets understandably what does it matter He forgets the third cabinet department but somehow that just crystallized the sense that he can't be president. Other people who make mistakes, many other mistakes were made Indicates that have an effect short-term and then are forgotten obviously. And the question is is it a Perry like moment for Marco Rubio? Probably not his campaign is not over by any means. He might still do pretty well in New Hampshire. And obviously when we go on - there's another debate next Saturday night in South Carolina and at that point people put it behind them. But there has been a sense with Rubio the critics has certainly said he's bright he memorizes these answers but its memory and he can't can he really discuss these issues and that's what you really want in a leader and a president and commander in chief A grasp of the issues. Take Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz also memorizes things very well. He's famous for having memorized the Constitution when he was in high school. He's also an excellent appellate lawyer Those guys have very good memories but I would say if you watch Cruz for example on North Korea that was an interesting moment in the debate when Martha Raddatz said what would you do with this lunch but just happened. Cruz give someone an answer. Martha Raddatz can be fairly tough on cruise. Cruz said I want to get an intelligence briefing before I say anything definitive, that's what a president should do. And Martha says well I mean you certainly talk a lot about the Middle East and you didn't have intelligence briefings there. And I thought Cruz quiet at least as well actually I have had many intelligence briefings on that and that's over a period of months and years but this happen tonight and I would want to get a briefing on exactly what happened in the last few hours. It wasn't brilliant it didn't knock it out of the park but it was a good sort of reaction on the spot. And what was unnerving a little bit about Rubio and I say this as someone who likes to review and respects him was the kind of heat just repeating it word for word I want to dispel the myth. And that's fine he says that in his stump speech. And these guys do to be fair to these politicians I work for them it stuff going around speaking 3,4,6 times a day and of course you're going to give the same speech no one can give a 6 different speeches a day be kind of crazy to try. And so it does kind of get embedded sort of hard wired into you. It was a poor moment for Rubio.
BILL Christie certainly beat up Rubio I don't know how many people will turn him as a positive force. I think in the so called moderate or establishment Lane Who knows it's kind of a black box out there honestly there so many voters who made break late a lot of Independence haven't made up their minds. Some of the Republicans haven't. But I'd say Kasich has been running a kind of classic moderate New Hampshire campaign which appeal to some chunk of the New Hampshire electric. Maybe not 50% of it. But could case and get 20% of the kind of good government reach across the aisle successful governor of the Midwestern state. He's the guy I bet on to be sort of a dark horse if you ask me who's going to be second to trump who might even challenge Trump and get into the 20s, 20% plus I think it would be John Kasich.
JIM If Rubio comes in second or a strong third, is it a whole different ballgame?
BILL It is. No I think if it matters that will matter here in New Hampshire these things don't last usually nationally for weeks and months. They make a difference when someone makes a mistake and The voters in the state in which that mistake is made sort of register that oh it has changed my opinion. 10 voters in other states in effect say Oh they took a closer look at Rubio’s and I did and they backed off him. And maybe I'll take a better look a closer look at Bush or something I think that's kind of the psychology of how that works among voters who are undecided or uncertain about their commitments. No I think Tuesday night will be the judge. And maybe that’s its that were all making too much about it and voters will decide that they're fine with it and they liked him and his mind froze for 20 seconds and that's it.
BILL I mean generally in the last several elections it has turned out to be the younger candidate. I think Obama benefited quite a lot running against McCain and Romney as the next generation Guy. And Clinton I was in that first Bush White House Clinton benefited in running against George HW Bush and then Bob Dole as the young guy. Rubio is basically the same age as Clinton and Obama when they ran successfully So you know I could argue as a Republican type I would say what the Republicans you I would say is finally we get the next generation you know you can think what you want about Ruby over cruise but they are 45 years old and the Democratic contest with the party of quote progressives have a 68-year-old and a 74 year olds.
BILL I think Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush I can accept them all their different parts on the spectrum of conservatism different manner of style some different views not that many different views actually. But Trump I just think it's not clear to me that he has the temperament to be President. He is certainly not proven to be conservative over the years. In any manner or straight. And I just find his personality his character questionable for the Presidency of the United States so I really would have trouble supporting Donald Trump. So the establishment guys I would agree with you They would prefer Trump they could cut deals with them they could work with him. Cruz scares them because he's a pretty strong pretty ideological uncompromising conservative.
JIM What do you mean by temperament?
BILL In Trump’s case? He's a bully. He insult people. He you know both and business and in the campaign he takes advantage of people and ridicules the disabled in the POW comment. Each of these one things people have a bad day they make a comment HL considered. But a series of them does show something about the man and he clearly relishes that enjoys it. And maybe you want that kind of person and some kind of limited job bargaining for you and something really tough like Putin for example but you don't want him as President of the United States.
JIM Who’s the bigger threat to America, Clinton or Trump?
BILL Well that's why we need the third party to save the country from either option. I think with Hillary Clinton we kind of know what we would get in my view it would be a continuation of a lot of bad policies. With trumpets so erratic and unpredictable that it's hard for me to imagine voting for either honestly.
JIM What does it say about America?
BILL Well we’ll see how big of a chunk it is. In Iowa it was about a quarter. And this happens a lot I mean Pat Buchanan got more than a quarter of the vote here in New Hampshire in the country didn't fall apart and I think Buchanan in some ways was more Offensive than Trump willing to really play in a more overt way with people who were anti-Semitic and nativists and probably a more mean spirited way. And Trump I think another reason people feel more entitled to support him, he expresses our worries our anger or resentment or concerns and somehow he does it sort of half jokingly so people kind of don't think he's really going to go do something terrible. I still think he's irresponsible. It’s worrisome. And honestly if I were a moderate liberal I have moderate liberal friends, I'd be a little worried that half of the Democratic electorate is for Bernie Sanders. So there is more discontent out there than the political class, And I guess I'm part of it, than Washington has realized and the media elite has realized. and I sympathize with that discontent. The elites have screwed a lot of things up in the last 15 20 years political elites economic elites, it's not ridiculous to think that Wall Street helped end Wall Street and Washington together Brought on an unbelievably bad financial crisis and who exactly pay the price for that you know. So a lot of middle class and working class people not a lot of people in Washington or New York which are both doing pretty well as cities in more symbolically as the political and economic elite. So I sympathize with the discontent. But as we know from history even legitimate discontent if it just becomes pure discontent can lead to bad outcomes.
BILL It was also revealing to me that the people who I talk to who are there in some of the local media, national media, thought that was a mistake of Trump to take on the audience. They booed him and all that. And Matthew Dowd actually made this shrewd comments this was just chatting off camera he said I don't know if you're in the audience a, isn’t this sort of true I think each campaign got 20 seats and then the other side some of them went to activists and hard-working Republican precinct captains and stuff but some of the seats undoubtedly did go to donors to the New Hampshire Republican party until some of the campaigns and that's not terrible. So I thought it was an effective point that Trump made. Yes I know I think there is real a real sense there that the elites have not been held accountable and Sanders and Trump have tapped into that.
JIM If Trump is number two again, does he go home?
BILL I don't know. I've talked to people who know him well. I barely know him. And they do think he's not really constitutionally set up to slog through 20 30 40 states. Running second and some third and some may be first in some but not really having an easy time of it. I don't know he seems like you've been pretty serious about the campaign to be fair to him.
JIM But his whole brand is winning
BILL So he'd have to win somewhere pretty soon I would think. And I think in New Hampshire unlike Iowa where he had been behind at one point of Cruz and then over to them and then lost by just a few points in a caucus. In a state like this where he's been ahead by what 10, 12 points in the average polls In a primary and which Republicans and independents can vote. If you lose this year I think it would do severe damage to him.
JIM This is not true. Romneycare precursor to Obamacare. Would seem the conservatives have less power to pick the person of their dreams..
BILL Yes. I think one reason some conservatives grassroot conservatives have been attracted to trumpet they've lost time and time again since Reagan. They lost in their point of view to do. They lost to Bush even to some degree in 2000. And they certainly lost to McCain and Romney their favorite candidates didn't win. And so there's a sense of we can't just go for a normal conservative guy who's going to lose. The next Rick Santorum remind Kaka B or C forms or whatever. We need to really end Trump is outside the box and the fact that he has done so well with a meteoric rise I think a lot of people have decided to see what they want to see because they're frustrated.
BILL We'll see if the younger people stay there. I believe I mean I think the Republicans will do quite well they did quite well in 2014 and I think they'll do quite well in 2016 with the younger voters. There and disagreement on some of the social issues. But I think it's often said if only they can get beyond some of these social issues. Up here in New England that maybe so but in other parts of the country Turn off a lot of young people who are culturally conservative, go to church, maybe on stuff like same-sex marriage they have changed their view, But on the life issues if anything there's some evidence that younger people are a little more pro life in any case they haven't move the other direction on that. But these people are also concerned about their future their mother or grandmother is on using Medicare and depends on it and they get nervous with all this cheerful libertarian economic conservative talk about how we're going to turn it into vouchers trust us We don't need these big government programs. A lot of people in America depend on these big government programs. So I'd say as a peer political matter for those votes it's complicated. The economic conservative message I think is the right message in terms of policy but its not automatically the most popular message in the world.
BILL Look I think the truth is if the Republican race came down to Cruz vs Rubio that would have to have an effect on people's judgment of character of the party. It is interesting That in Iowa this conservative evangelical anti-immigration apparently Republican electric, 29% of them voted for Cruz 23% voted for Rubio and 10% for Ben Carson so about 60% of them voted for Latinos in an African Americans so that in itself over time will have some effect..
Hillary & Wallstreet
BILL Well we’ll see…it’ll get argued. You still have to favor Hillary. I am genuinely puzzled And interested about the following - Hillary Clinton is an intelligent woman and she has answers to Bernie Sanders on these issues It's not like Hillary Clinton doesn't know a fair amount about economic policy being in the White House and being in the Senate and even Secretary of State. And the answer if I were advised and Hillary Clinton just say what I think she really believes this look your a democratic socialist fine I'm not a socialist I'm a Bill Clinton type Democrat and I just made a pretty good economic performance you can help Main Street and Wall Street has to do well to some degree you need to have banks that work and people have to invest as its good when the stock market goes up it’s not bad Four people in terms of their IRA and their pensions. No then she would say of course I'm not like those terrible Republicans I wouldn’t Cut taxes for the rich. But she has a coherent defense of Her economic be used against Bernie Sanders. But she hasn't made it. & I don't know quite why. I think maybe because she's worried that in the Democratic Party And given the mood of the moment she's a little nervous that if they actually have an actual economic policy debate, I mean Bernie Sanders says what that the business model of Wall Street is fraud. I mean that's ridiculous honestly. I mean is that a grown-up statement to make? And incidentally a lot of people work on Wall Street and for Wall Street firms. I mean if you really believe that public television would have to refuse all donations from Merrill Lynch and Citibank in and all the people who have relatives working for any major bank in the United States would be complicit in fraud. It's kind of an extreme statement. We talk about Trump’s extreme statements but that's a pretty extreme statement. But she's a little worried I think a little timid about taking it on and it does say something about the mood of the country is well The Trump Sanders phenomenon together. And then I think in Sanders case about the mood of some junk we'll see how big of a chunk of the Democratic Party.
