In June 2016, voters in the United Kingdom made history when they voted for the U.K. to leave the European Union in what was colloquially dubbed “Brexit.” At the time, supporters cheered for what they hoped would be a return to England’s former glory as a preeminent superpower while detractors criticized them for racist and nativist undertones they felt lay beneath the entire referendum. Both sides were able to agree that they weren’t quite sure exactly what would happen.
In its 25-year-long history, no member nation has withdrawn from the EU. After the vote, the question that was left to be answered is how to allow the U.K. to leave with minimal harm done to the U.K., EU and global economies.
After two years of back and forth negotiations, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May finally negotiated a deal that was accepted by the E.U. Now, she has an even tougher challenge of selling this deal back to her own parliament.
“There’s been a lot of comparisons between what’s going between the U.K. and the EU to a divorce settlement, and that is absolutely the way to look at it,” said Charlie Sennott, WGBH News analyst and CEO of the GroundTruth Project. “So, we’ve got unbelievable political theatre about to unfold in London.”
May’s deal could be considered a “soft Brexit.” Though Brexit will officially take place in March 2019, a “soft Brexit” deal would call for a transition period that would still allow the U.K. to continue to participate in the EU’s single economic market until 2020. The U.K. would have to agree to abide by all EU rules and regulations, which they will no longer have a vote in deciding. Under this agreement, the U.K. would also agree to keep the border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the U.K.) and the nation of Ireland (which is part of the EU) open. Lastly, and perhaps most controversially, the agreement places a monetary value on how much the U.K. would need to pay the EU for contributions to staff pensions and earlier agreements to EU programs that are set to expire in 2020, a total that is estimated to be close to $50 billion.
May hopes her plan will provide enough time for businesses based and operating in the U.K. to put together a framework to conduct business with the EU after Brexit. However, her deal has already drawn criticism from the far-right of her own conservative party who are pushing for an immediate break from the EU. Conservatives are also upset that May’s deal allows for EU citizens to travel to the U.K. without visas for short visits and the open Irish border, saying it doesn’t go far enough in returning sovereignty to the U.K. in governing their borders.
“If you read the withdrawal agreement, you can see that we are witnessing the birth of a new country called UK(NI) or Ukni,” former British Foreign Secretary and Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson said in a speech on Saturday. “We need to junk the backstop.”
On the left, sentiment for May’s deal is not much better. The liberal-left leaning Labour Party has challenged May to a televised debate between Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and May, where Corbyn is expected to discuss May’s “botched Brexit deal and the future of our country,” according to a Labour Party spokesman. Though Labour isn’t officially endorsing bringing a second Brexit referendum back to the public, internal polling from the party says a majority of Labour voters feel May’s deal will be worse than staying in the EU.
To add to the tension of the moment, May and the U.K. parliament only have four months to negotiate and ratify a deal before Brexit automatically takes place on March 29, 2019, with or without a decision from parliament.
“Theresa May is going to have to step up and sell this to her party to get it through, and it’s the greatest challenge of her life. It is a historical moment inside of parliament,” Sennott said. “If she fails, there is political hell to pay.”
