In the race for U.S. Senate, if momentum counts, then Democrat Elizabeth Warren is riding a wave. For the third pollin a row, Warren leads incumbent Sen. Scott Brown. The poll of 600 likely voters by Suffolk University and Channel 7 shows her leading Brown by four points, 48 to 44 percent.
The timing comes just weeks after Warren appeared in the national spotlight during the Democratic National Convention. Pollster David Paleologos said Warren is making significant gains in her core constituencies like women, minorities and registered Democrats.
“I think entering the TV debate phase, I think Warren comes into it slightly ahead and Brown trails because he’s given up some of the uncertainty toward Warren and those demographics are clearly in Warren’s column,” he said.
Both candidates hope to sway independent voters. That’s a group that has supported Brown. But since May, the trend shows Brown losing five points among independents, who have shifted to the undecided column.
“Scott Brown needs to win independents by a similar number as he won in January of 2010, which is two-to-one. He’s not there yet,” Paleologos said. “So Brown needs to get those independents who have gone to undecided back in his column. And Elizabeth Warren just needs to chip away a bit among independents and lose by 15 to 20 points. If she does that, then she’ll win.”
Meanwhile, two other polls released over the weekend of Sept. 15 also show Warren enjoying a post-convention bounce in the polls ... and overtaking Brown.
A Public Policy Polling survey has Warren leading by two percent. That’s up seven points. And a Western New England University pollputs Warren ahead by six points. That’s up four percent.
While the polls are just a snapshot of the campaign, Brown and Warren continue their campaign ad assault, which sets the stage for their first of four televised debates this Thursday night, Sept. 20.
Note, however, that this latest poll putting Warren ahead by four points has a margin of error of four percent. So with exactly 7 weeks until the election, the race stands somewhere between a dead heat or a Warren lead of eight percentage points.
