The average price of gasoline climbed to $3.84 a gallon in Massachusetts Wednesday, as the war in Iran continued to push fuel prices higher worldwide.
Massachusetts residents have been feeling the pinch at the pump for more than a month now, but prices here remain below the national average, which hit $4 a gallon this week. Local prices are far below states like California, where the average price of gas is now $5.89 per gallon, said Mark Schieldrop, a spokesperson for AAA Northeast.
Still, the current surge in fuel costs marks the sharpest increase since 2022, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and gas prices in Massachusetts topped $5 per gallon. Schieldrop does not expect fuel costs to jump as dramatically this time around, because the U.S. oil supply has remained comparably stable throughout the Middle East conflict.
“How bad could it get? The sky is the limit,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we cross over $4 a gallon [in Massachusetts] in the next couple weeks. But I’m cautiously optimistic that we will level off right around the $4 a gallon mark, and hopefully don’t go too much higher.”
Analysts have warned that prices will likely surge in the coming weeks because of several coinciding factors: the war’s impact on the supply chain, a seasonal change in fuel, and increased demand.
First off, Schieldrop explained that even if a peace deal were announced today, damage to oil refineries and energy facilities across the Middle East will continue to choke the global supply chain and hurt oil markets.
Secondly, this is around the time of year gas stations transition to a different blend of fuel. The Environmental Protection Agency mandates this seasonal switch to a blend that doesn’t evaporate as fast in warm weather, reducing air pollution. It is more expensive in part because of the additional costs to refineries.
On top of that, there’s the question of what effect summer travel plans will have on prices. Traditionally, a spike in travel during the summer months leads to an increase in demand for fuel, causing higher prices at the pump.
Sticker shock at the pump and increases in the cost of air travel mean “we could see a decline in travel” overall, Schieldrop said. The New York Times recently interviewed people who had already changed or canceled their travel plans because of the higher costs.
That could help stave off demand-induced jumps in fuel prices, Schieldrop added. But it could also pose a problem for Massachusetts, which is expecting a major boost in travel and tourism spending this summer as the commonwealth hosts a series of high-profile events, including the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup and America 250 celebrations.
