A Look Ahead To South Carolina

Now that New Hampshire is over and done with, it’s time for the presidential candidates to focus their attention on making gains in the South Carolina primary. While a new electorate may mean positive results for candidates who slumped in the Granite State, momentum from New Hampshire could also lead to unexpected victories in South Carolina.

Senator Dan Wolf(@SenatorDanWolf), NewBostonPost.com's Jennifer Braceras (@MAHockeyMom) and The Boston Globe's Scot Lehigh (@GlobeScotLehigh) joined Greater Boston's Jim Braude to look ahead at what's to come in the 2016 race. 

Hillary Clinton was focused on South Carolina even before the former secretary of state lost New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders. On Monday Clinton visited Flint, Michigan to address victims of the lead-poisoned drinking water.

“The children of Flint are just as precious as the children of any other part of America,” Clinton said. Flint has the eighth largest population of Black Americans in the country, a demographic that Clinton will depend on for the Democratic nomination. 

South Carolina, Clinton has a huge lead among young Black and Latino voters; however, if New Hampshire is any indication, young Democrats who “feel the Bern" may chip away at Clinton's base of support in the state. 

“[Sanders] obviously now has the stage,” said Lehigh, “he certainly will now have the chance to make his case in a conservative state, and we’ll see whether the same dynamic is at play.”

Sanders’ big win in New Hampshire left many uncertain of Clinton’s chances at the nomination, an outcome that seemed a nearly certain just a few months ago. If Clinton fails to leave South Carolina with a victory, her campaign may not have the funds or support to continue—especially given speculation that Sanders will likely capture Nevada. 

Braude asked Senator Wolf, a Sanders supporter, to weigh in on whether the Vermont senator’s past involvement with the Civil Rights movement could move Black voters, especially given decades of representing a majority white constituency in Vermont. “Well, it’s representing decades of failure of both parties to really address urban and minority issues in this country,” replied Wolf, “and I think Bernie Sanders is prepared to do that, and I think he’ll have a smart conversation with the folks in South Carolina.”

On Sanders’ ability to build support in South Carolina, Jennifer Braceras isn’t convinced that the senator can break through Clinton’s wall of influence. “I think [Sanders] will do better than people thought he was going to do, but the truth is, the South is Clinton country,” said Braceras. 

For Republicans, South Carolina is make-or-break for the so-called “establishment” candidates hoping to be seen as a viable alternative to Trump and Cruz. 

Lehigh argues that contrary to popular notion, New Hampshire is not a reliable predictor of the nominee from either party; instead, he argues the Republican field is still wide open.

“We have this tendency to want to say ‘Hey, Iowa and New Hampshire have decided everything,’ and it’s ridiculous. What they do is give some indications…and they winnow the field a bit…but there are five guys who are going to go forward after this,” said Lehigh. 

An open race in South Carolina may be bad news for John Kasich, who came up from the bottom to gain a second-place finish in New Hampshire; but it's good news for Marco Rubio, who tanked Tuesday following a less-than-compelling performance in Saturday’s Republican debate.

When Braude asked Braceras, a Rubio supporter, to weigh in on how Rubio could recover after his poor showing in the debate drained support from his campaign, Braceras said that the first test of leadership is to admit where you’ve gone wrong, “and [Rubio] did that.” Looking forward, Rubio need to “go down to South Carolina, and he does need to come out of the bubble and get off-script a little bit,” Braceras said. 

So which GOP candidate will survive and win enough support to challenge Trump? “I think it’s either Kasich or Bush,” Wolf speculated, “I think it has to be, because it has to be someone more establishment and more moderate.”

For Jeb Bush, South Carolina poses a decisive challenge for his campaign’s future. “South Carolina, a poor finish there would be really crippling for [Bush],” said Lehigh. George W. Bush will be in South Carolina to stump for his brother, but it’s unclear if the family endorsement will be a boost or a bust for the younger Bush. 

The future of Election 2016 is still murky for both parties, but the lack of clarity leads some to speculate on other qualified candidates who may be waiting in the wings, namely Michael Bloomberg and Joe Biden. However, Greater Boston’s panel didn't garner much excitement for a surprise entry late in the game. “I don’t think Bloomberg gets in,” Wolf said, “I don’t think he’s electable on a national ticket, I really don’t.”

For now, it seems that no new candidates will make moves to enter the race. This could all change though, as Braceras said, if Sanders wins the nominee.