New Hampshire primary voters are notoriously late deciders. But this year has defied expectations in so many ways, why not that one too?
After all, the polls, especially on the Republican side, have been remarkably steady for months. Aside from the quick rise and fall of Ben Carson, and the occasional dropping out of an also-ran, the field has looked remarkably constant: Donald Trump around 30 percent, more or less, with Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie all within a few points of 10 percent either way, and Carly Fiorina lagging a little behind.
And while individual polls vary, the Democrats have also been pretty steady. For about five months, polling averages have shown Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton for all but brief periods—usually by between five and 10 points, although the gap has widened recently.
So, maybe New Hampshire voters are pretty well set on what they’re going to do Tuesday.
But not if you ask them: between a third and a half of them have been telling pollsters they might still change their mind.
How will you know if there are surprises looming? Here are six things to watch for.
• Kasich For What Ails You
Kasich has sold himself as the Republican who can rescue the Republican Party from the scary, wild-eyed conservatives.
Of course, if you’re a wild-eyed conservative, that message doesn’t really resonate. And many other Republicans view other candidates—Rubio, Bush, or Christie, for instance—as reasonable conservatives.
The question is whether independent voters, many of whom are former Republicans who have been scared off by the hard-core conservatives of the modern GOP, will want to vote for Kasich in the Republican primary. They might see it as an important final effort to save bring the party back to them.
That could have big ramifications in the Democrats’ race too. Independents may choose either a Republican or Democratic ballot when they vote. If a large number heed Kasich’s call, that pulls them out of the Democratic contest—where, one might imagine, they would have been more likely to choose the relatively moderate Clinton over the more radical Sanders.
Watch for a Kasich surge, especially if it seems to be coming from Independents.
• Backlash Against The Rubio-Bashing?
The national media is pummeling Rubio for his debate performance Saturday, in which Christie brutally called Rubio out for relying on memorized mantras.
It’s gotten so much attention, it is almost certainly penetrating the primary voters’ consciousness. It might hurt Rubio, as many are suggesting. Or, it might actually help him.
New Hampshire primary voters frequently bounce the opposite way the media seems to be indicating—precisely because of that media message. The late reporter David Nyhan first taught me to look for that contrary New Hampshire reaction—“They can’t tell me how I’m going to vote!”—and I’ve seen it time after time.
In this case, Rubio may have been hurt by stories earlier in the week about his supposed momentum; polling suggests that, beyond a couple of points immediately after Monday’s Iowa caucuses, Rubio had actually been mired at around 15 percent even before Saturday’s debate, possibly because New Hampshire Republicans don’t like to like someone just because Iowa liked him.
Since then, the focus on Rubio’s “glitch” has actually kept the focus on him. A negative focus, sure, but that could still help him. See if voter interviews on primary day seem to reflect that.
• Sweet-Talking
Three Republicans—Cruz, Trump, and Rubio—seem certain to go on from New Hampshire. The others, regardless of what they may say, could be knocked out with a poor performance.
If the stronger campaigns start saying nice things about any of those imperiled candidates, it’s a good sign that the end is near.
If Rubio, for example, says he has no ill will toward outstanding Gov. Chris Christie regarding the debate exchange, that would suggest that Rubio’s campaign thinks Christie is not doing well at the New Hampshire polls, and will soon be on the sidelines choosing someone to endorse.
Likewise, if Rubio or Cruz makes a point of criticizing Bush, that might indicate that Bush is outperforming expectations, and will go on to fight, and be a serious factor, in the upcoming Nevada caucus and South Carolina primary, and beyond.
Also, look for signs coming from outside the campaigns too. If Bush fundraisers are being quoted about the need to consolidate around one candidate for the good of the party, that might be their way of telling Jeb to get out.
• Snow Problem?
As of this writing, it was snowing in New Hampshire on Monday and forecast to snow again Wednesday. However, Tuesday looked clear, and projected accumulations are unlikely to hamper the hardy residents who consider a few inches a dusting.
Nevertheless, it’s definitely worth watching.
Snow in the heavily populated southeast region of the state— and even below, in Massachusetts—can snarl commuting times for the thousands who drive into the Bay State for work. That can throw voting plans out the window.
That could be a problem for Clinton. The Manchester-Nashua-Salem triangle was the region that won her the 2008 primary; she needs as many of her supporters there to get to the polls.
I could also picture it hurting Trump, whose fans include many drive-time conservative radio listeners in that area.
Retirees, who make up a large share of primary voters, don’t need to worry about the commute. But they might have a tougher time getting to the polls in the snow. Trump, despite newfound interest in the “ground game,” probably lacks the extensive, well-organized get-out-the-vote operations that would help get them there. Many of the other Republican candidates claim to; a snowy primary day will put that to the test.
It would also test Clinton’s operation; she relies heavily on older voters, while Sanders does far better with younger ones.
Sanders, meanwhile, will have an eye on the western part of the state. Towns such as Lebanon and Keene not only lie geographically close to Sanders’s home state of Vermont; they also went with Barack Obama in 2008. Sanders needs to roll up as many votes as possible there.
• Huntsman Line?
With a crowded field splitting the GOP vote many ways, what will media commentators consider a “good” showing or a “bad” one?
Will they even agree on what the line between the two is?
Whether they do, and where they see that line, could make a big difference.
Since there was such a clear top three in Iowa, well ahead of the rest, that was how most of the media viewed it: Cruz, Trump, Rubio, and then the irrelevant others. Having done so there, some might look to apply the same to New Hampshire—suggesting that anyone who doesn’t get into the top three in one of those two states is done for.
Others might make double-digits the dividing line. That, however, could include five or more of the Republican candidates, which is more than the media can usually contemplate at one time.
Perhaps they’ll look at the Huntsman Line: the 17% that Jon Huntsman received in New Hampshire in 2012, after a bottom-of-the-pack Iowa showing. Huntsman dropped out of the race right after New Hampshire—17 percent was not enough.
Sure, it’s a very different race this time around. But if just two or three candidates clear 17 percent, the Huntsman Line would be a convenient way to divide up the field—and discuss those below the line only in terms of when they are likely to drop out.
• Clinton Rhetoric
The Clinton campaign has been increasingly willing to attack Sanders, in mailings and via surrogates, including her husband the former president.
But, for the most part, Clinton herself has not gotten nasty on the stump and in interviews.
If she feels she is coming out of New Hampshire without too much damage, she’ll likely maintain that happy face. She will want to convey confidence to Democrats in upcoming states, and a welcoming hand to Sanders supporters who she’ll need in the general election.
On the other hand, if she and her advisors think they’re taking a beating in New Hampshire that will spill over to those other states, Clinton will likely feel the need to go to full battle mode. Her primary night speech will be especially telling.
