In his State of the Union speech Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced the launch of a new “war on fraud” led by Vice President J.D. Vance. He also suggested that what he called the “corruption” waiting to be uncovered in “California, Massachusetts, Maine and many other states” is “even worse” than it is in Minnesota, where a massive, still-unfolding fraud scandal prompted Governor Tim Walz not to seek reelection.

Which raises an obvious question: does Trump’s characterization of Massachusetts pass muster?

The short answer, it seems, is no. In his speech, Trump accused the Somali community in Minnesota, which is the largest in the country, of “pillag[ing] an estimated $19 billion from the American taxpayer.”

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In fact, the first assistant U.S. Attorney for Minnesota recently put the number at about half that, and the eighty-two Somalis who’ve been charged in various schemes represent less than 0.1 % of the Somalis in the state.

However, the scope of the fraud revelations in Minnesota has grown since 2022, when a scheme to provide false meals with federal money during the pandemic first surfaced. That scheme, known as the Feeding Our Future scandal, cost taxpayers at least $300 million, according to the Department of Justice.

In comparison, the numbers linked to public benefits fraud in Massachusetts are much smaller.

Earlier this year, for example, state Auditor Diana DiZoglio announced that her office had uncovered nearly $12 million in public benefits fraud in Massachusetts in FY25, including $4.1 million worth of fraud in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.

That figure apparently does not include nearly $7 million in SNAP fraud that the U.S. Attorney for Massachusetts alleges occurred at two convenience stores in Mattapan, where the owners purportedly trafficked SNAP cards for cash.

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Earlier this month, meanwhile, federal prosecutors announced charges linked to alleged fraud totaling more than $1 million. The defendants are accused of using stolen identities to obtain more than $400,000 in SNAP benefits and of illegally obtaining $700,000 in Pandemic Unemployment Insurance benefits.

Instances of fraud haven’t only occurred around SNAP: A massive $100 million home-healthcare scheme led to the January 2025 sentencing of Faith Newton of Westford.

But even if Newton’s fraud is factored in, the numbers from Massachusetts remain much lower than those coming out of Minnesota.

Jim Stergios, the head of the right-leaning Pioneer Institute, said the idea that benefits fraud is more prevalent in Massachusetts than Minnesota is dubious.

“I certainly hope that is not the case,” Stergios said. “I know of many folks who are professionals who’ve worked in state government, and I’m hoping it’s not the case. The massive level of fraud in Minnesota seems hard to replicate in Massachusetts.”

Stergios argues that a more pressing problem in Massachusetts is what he calls “leakage — meaning “outdated systems that are making mistaken payments, overpayments, and paying the wrong people, without the kinds of audits that ensure that taxpayer money is being spent well.”

In other words, while leakage and fraud can be and are lumped together, the former term implies a system operating with insufficient precision and rigor rather than an active intention to cheat.

For example, Stergios said, the federal government sized up Massachusetts’ unemployment insurance program in 2024 and concluded that 22 percent of all payments meted out represented leakage or fraud. Since then, he added, the Healey Administration has driven that number down to 16 percent.

“Kudos to them for taking some action, but 16 percent is really high,” Stergios said.

Stergio also said that leakage in Mass. Health, the state’s version of Medicaid, is thought to range somewhere between 6 percent and 10 percent. Even if the more modest former number is accurate, he added, that could amount to over $1 billion in lost funds, since Mass. Health is a $22 billion program.

“It’s important,” Stergios said. “I’m not trying to minimize it.”

In a statement to GBH News, DiZoglio decried what she described as the Trump Administration’s political manipulation of benefits fraud.

“With respect to these life-saving social welfare programs, accountability exists to protect needed resources for struggling families, not to starve them,” DiZoglio said “Fraud detection should never be weaponized to justify doing harm to the struggling families who are following the rules.

“Our work uncovering fraud helps to ensure families in need get assistance, whereas this administration seeks to weaponize the actions of fraudsters as an excuse to punish our most vulnerable populations through cuts to essential services,” DiZoglio added. “That doesn’t reduce fraud, it just scapegoats our poorest families.”

Gov. Maura Healey did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Whatever the accuracy, or lack thereof, of Trump’s claims, calling out Massachusetts and California — states that are known nationally for their generally progressive politics — is an easy way to win conservative support for the new “war on fraud,” and possibly for the benefits cuts DiZoglio is warning against.

Meanwhile, the addition of Maine as a third front in the “war on fraud” may reflect that state’s large Somali population and Trump’s broader fixation on Somalis, who he described as “pirates” in Tuesday’s speech. It could also be a product of ongoing tensions between Trump and Maine Gov. Janet Mills, who has clashed with Trump publicly and is currently running for U.S. Senate.