Earlier this week, we spoke with Boston University Questrom School of Business professor Mark Williams about what he calls the “Trump trifecta” — the combined impact of tariffs, immigration crackdowns and cuts to federal funding — and how these federal policy changes pose a unique and outsized threat to Massachusetts’ economy.
In a recent op-ed, Williams argues that the state is particularly vulnerable because of its reliance on research dollars, global talent and international trade — the pillars of our knowledge-based economy. He joined GBH’s All Things Considered host Arun Rath to continue that conversation and explore what can be done. What follows is a lightly edited transcript.
Arun Rath: Let’s start off with the numbers. Tell us the total economic cost of these Trump policies.
Mark Williams: When we include tariffs, the NIH cuts, and immigration crackdowns, for 2026 alone, that could be the equivalent of $18.6 billion. It’s actually a reduction of [Massachusetts’] GDP of almost 6%. Job losses could increase to almost 140,000 just by next year.
Rath: You’ve written about what you call Massachusetts’ “Ed-Med economy.” That is, federal funding fuels biotech, drug research and innovation. But now, much of that funding is at risk. Tell us about the impact of these funding cuts.
Williams: The funding cuts themselves are significant because our economy itself is driven by that industry. If we think about higher education, which includes… what? 113 colleges and universities in Massachusetts? Life sciences, which include 18 of the 20 top global pharmaceutical companies that are based here in Massachusetts. We look at trade; trade itself is about a $60 billion business for Massachusetts. And tourism — when you add it all up, it’s about one-third of the GDP.
These policies — specifically, these funding cuts — impact the Ed-Med sector, and that’s 20% of GDP. The reason why I’m focusing so much on GDP is because that’s really an economic barometer of the health of the state. As GDP declines, the health of Massachusetts and the health of its residents, from an economic standpoint, declines.
Rath: You wrote about this economy that’s been built up, which has basically been the pride, I guess, of Massachusetts over the last couple of decades, and how these cuts seem almost tailor-made to undo it.
Williams: Right. If I were to think or reverse engineer how best could I cripple a very strong economy like Massachusetts — this would be the game plan. And that’s exactly what’s being executed, and that’s why the state itself has to be very, very uncomfortable with what’s happening and has to respond.
Rath: Let’s talk about how the state responds, because obviously, we can’t control what the president and the federal government do. What can the state do to respond to this attack, as you term it?
Williams: The first step is that the Governor really needs to create a formal economic war room, and that’s really for each of these economic areas — that includes tariffs, how it impacts NIH funding in regard to our Ed-Med sector, and then as it relates to immigration and our potential loss of workforce.
Rath: Talk in a bit more detail when it comes to these federal funding cuts. How can we respond to that? With more state money?
Williams: Well, the funding cuts … It’s going to be a big gap. It’s estimated to be on an annual basis of half a billion to almost a billion dollars, and when you include the multiplier effect of NIH funding, it’s up to $2 billion a year.
In essence, that gap needs to be filled by a public-private partnership, almost like a venture capitol model, where investors are sought after that can actually help fill it and actually continue the economic growth that this funding has really fueled from Massachusetts. It’s been, really, 20 years of economic growth in the Ed-Med sector because of NIH funding.
Rath: Any other recommendations in terms of an action plan to mitigate the economic hit?
Williams: Well, importantly, Massachusetts has to acknowledge that our economy right now is starting to slow down, and we see that already; our unemployment rate has just been announced in April to have increased by 4.6%, so things are really starting to slow down.
As a result, the state has to button down the hatches. We’ve seen that this week, the governor has put a hiring freeze, which is a good first step. But the next thing that the state really needs to do is change the budget process. We need to go back to a month-to-month budget process. No longer can we have this annualized budget process.
The last time we went to a month-to-month budget — which is more receptive and responsive to what’s happening on a day-to-day basis — was during COVID. So that would be a good idea for the state to do immediately.
Rath: You said some of these first steps the state is taking. Do you feel confident that the state will take the other ones?
Williams: The state itself is being hit on lots of different fronts, and when it comes down to it, state funds cannot replace federal funding. All we can do is anticipate the hit and then be able to minimize the outcome.
One way the state can do that is, really, to lawyer up. That is, the attorney general’s office legal defense fund really needs to push back on Trump’s policies. Delaying these policies from going into effect could actually save millions and potentially billions of dollars for Massachusetts in our industries.
I think it’s an extremely important thing that the House has recommended millions of dollars be added to the AG fund. But I recommend that there should be even more money because that’s actually money well spent in a risk-management approach.
Rath: Gotcha. So when I say there’s nothing we can do about the federal government, that’s actually not true. There are the courts.
Williams: Yes, there are other things we can do. We can actually protect our immigrant labor force. When I say immigrant labor force, I’m referring to legal immigrants. There’s a good chance we’re going to have a lower flow of immigrants wanting to work in Massachusetts because of the national environment.
We need to actually be aggressive in campaigning and make it very clear that in Massachusetts, it’s a great place to live, work and study for immigrants. And foreign students — we also need to actually aggressively attract, keep and retain them instead of losing them, like it looks like we’re going to through these Trump policies.
And last, we need to aggressively campaign against losing foreign visitors. In Massachusetts, we get over 50 million visitors a year. 2.1 million are foreign visitors. One-third of those are Canadians, and already we’re seeing estimates that Canadian visitors will decline by 20% at least by 2026.
These foreign visitors themselves stay longer and spend more money, so it’s a significant thing for us to try to turn the perception around that Massachusetts is a friendly place — a good place for tourists, and also for immigrants and foreign students to live, work and study.
