The detection of the new COVID-19 omicron variant late last week spurred global action, putting a pause on some international travel and worrying researchers with its high number of mutations. But while the omicron variant is a looming potential threat, local experts say that Massachusetts' high case counts are the more immediate cause for concern.
Much more will be known about the variant’s potential danger in a couple of weeks, local health experts say.
“What we don’t know is more important,” said Dr. David Hamer, a professor of global health and medicine at the Boston University School of Public Health Medicine and an infectious disease specialist at Boston Medical Center. “We don’t know whether it [omicron] really is more transmissible. We don’t know whether it’s better able to evade the immune response. And we don’t know whether it’s more likely to cause severe disease and hospitalization and potentially death. So there’s a lot of unknowns right now.”
Like the delta variant, omicron has been designated a ‘variant of concern’ by the WHO, and it has been detected in a few places across the United States — though not yet in Massachusetts. Researchers around the world are rushing to fill in the knowledge gaps on the omicron variant, said Andrew Lover, an assistant professor of epidemiology at UMass Amherst.
But in the meantime, Lover said, the picture closer to home is what worries him.
On Thursday, the latest figures from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health put the 7-day average of hospitalizations for COVID-19 at 855, and the 7-day average of confirmed cases at 2,363. Both figures are at their highest since January and February.
“Certainly, the next few weeks are going to be very challenging in terms of the state landscape,” Lover said. “It looks like we're in the middle of a delta wave — on top of omicron, which is coming down the pipeline.”
The DPH’s latest figures also showed that in the last two weeks, young children had far higher case rates than any other age group. Though 5- to 14-year-olds represent just 11% of the population, they accounted for roughly 20% of new cases.
“We have one of the highest vaccine coverage [rates] in the country, and yet we’re seeing a surge in cases right now,” said Hamer, “and some of this may be driven by an increase in cases in younger age groups, where there is somewhat less good vaccine uptake.”
Hamer said another concern was that there is evidence of waning immunity to COVID from initial rounds of vaccinations. Experts and politicians, including Gov. Charlie Baker, have pushed Americans to get their booster shots in the wake of the omicron news for added protection. Nearly 1.2 million booster shots have been administered in Massachusetts as of Thursday.
“People that are due for boosters really need to get their boosters,” Hamer said. “I think that the potential for a further rise in cases is substantial in Massachusetts.”
He argued that the Baker administration should reimpose an indoor mask mandate in all public places to reduce transmission, rather than leaving it to towns and cities.
Both Hamer and Lover added that, while the omicron variant might be more transmissible or existing vaccines might be less effective against it, there is a chance it could also turn out to be relatively benign.
“I’m getting tons of questions from a lot of a different places, from family and friends and colleagues,” Lover said. “And yeah, it's a bit unsatisfying to say we simply don't know anything yet. But that’s just the nature of the beast right now.”
“There have been other variants that looked extremely concerning — gamma looked extremely worrisome in terms of clinical severity and reinfection, but it just kind of fizzled out in terms of competing with the other viruses globally,” he continued. “And it’s entirely possible that something similar could happen with omicron.”
