It’s been a beautiful summer so far, without major heat waves or severe weather in New England. But what does that mean in a broader context? GBH meteorologist Dave Epstein joined Morning Edition hosts Paris Alston and Jeremy Siegel to talk about the weather, climate and what an agricultural drought means for your produce haul. Here’s what you need to know.
It’s going to be a perfect summer weekend.
Epstein himself is not a fan of summer: Too hot. Risks of drought. But even he said this weekend is going to be lovely.
“The weather this weekend just looks absolutely stunning,” he said. “We're going to have sunshine both days. Temperatures are going to be about 80, 81 degrees, maybe 82. Light winds, a little bit of a sea breeze. I'd say it's nearly ideal.
If this was the weather all the time in the summer, summer would be moving up in rank in how I feel about the seasons. It's just been incredible. pic.twitter.com/tJs7767cfr
— Dave Epstein (@growingwisdom) July 6, 2022
Less extreme weather doesn’t disprove a changing climate.
This summer is looking like “one of the nicest summers on record, that we've seen in a long time anyway,” Epstein said.
But it’s important to keep larger trends in mind.
“Last July was one of the wettest on record, the wettest in some places. Last June was the hottest on record and last August was one of the hottest known records. Last summer was the hottest summer on record,” Epstein said. “So that was actually more typical.”
Climate is not linear, even when it’s changing rapidly.
“It doesn't mean that because 2021 was the hottest summer on record, 2022 is the next hottest summer on record,” Epstein said. “It can go down. We saw that in the winter of 2014-2015. But if you look at the trend, it's up."
Epstein compared it to the stock market. "Look at the trend of the stock market since 1929. The trend is up, but there's years, like what we've been going through lately, where it's down, but that doesn't mean it's going to go down, nor is the weather going to cool off," he said. "We're lucking out, frankly. It's been an amazing summer so far, especially the nights. The nights have been particularly more seasonable, wonderful sleeping weather and not a lot of humidity. I'm so bullish on the weather right now.”
A drought in New England can have an effect on fruit.
Yes. But don’t picture the droughts in California and the western United States — New England droughts look a little different.
“We're not going to have a water issue like they do out west where we can't get water out of the Quabbin Reservoir. That's not going to happen,” Epstein said.
But it can have implications for farmers: Slightly less rain can mean more flavorful local fruit.
“Things like apples and peaches are maybe a little smaller, but certainly flavorful this year. Last year the peaches weren't that flavorful because it was too much water,” Epstein said. “So this year they may be a little better. Grapes will be really good if this continues.”
If the drought continues for “multiple years,” Epstein said, there are serious concerns about impacts on trees and other areas of the ecosystem. “But right now, it's sort of just a short-term drought which has been going on since the spring. And we can manage this.”
