Refugees in Afghanistan are flooding into Kabul as the country's U.S.-trained forces appear to be collapsing in the face of a concerted push by Taliban forces. Names and places that became familiar to Americans during their country's long involvement there — including Kunduz and Kandahar — have
fallen like dominoes
It's a scene being likened to the 1975
fall of Saigon
While it's not yet clear if the Taliban will be able to seize control of the entire country, the speed of the radical religious movement's advance has alarmed many inside and outside the country. The Taliban have gained a reputation, after all, for brutality and enforcement of a harsh brand of Islamic justice in the five years they ruled until being toppled by invading U.S.-led forces in 2001.
Here's a look at why the outcome in Afghanistan matters:
Afghanistan will become a human rights problem
In the provinces they've captured so far, there's strong evidence that the Taliban of today and the Taliban of 20 years ago
are not much different
The Taliban of the past were infamous for denying education to women, carrying out public executions of their opponents, persecuting minorities, such as the
Shiite Hazaras
There's no reason to think that a new Taliban regime won't be another humanitarian eyesore, Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the U.S., tells NPR.
So far, in the areas of the country where they have regained control, the Taliban "have been executing people summarily, they have been lashing women, they have been shutting down schools. They have been blowing up hospitals and infrastructure," he warns.
Ronald Neumann, a former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan during President George W. Bush's administration, told
NPR's Morning Edition
A Taliban regime could again become a safe haven for extremists
The casus belli for the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks was that the Taliban refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden — considered by Washington to be an international fugitive.
While in recent months several experts have
weighed in, suggesting that such a concern is overwrought
Speaking on
NPR's All Things Considered
"If they take control of Afghanistan, there is no question in my mind that they will provide a safe haven for al-Qaida, for ISIS and for terrorism in general," he said. "And that constitutes, frankly, a national security threat to the United States."
Ghulam Isaczai, Afghanistan's representative to the United Nations, sounded a similar warning last week,
saying
A Taliban-ruled Afghanistan might destabilize Pakistan
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI — the country's equivalent of the CIA — is widely believed to have
helped foster the Taliban
But Pakistan's long, porous border with Afghanistan has brought it as much trouble as brotherhood: For years, Pakistan housed tens of thousands of Afghan refugees in border camps such as
Jalozai
The Taliban in Afghanistan helped inspire the deadly
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan
Haqqani, the former ambassador who is now director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute, writes in
Foreign Affairs
He says that Pakistan's "risky game" of supporting the Taliban while trying to maintain good relations with Washington has "was never going to prove sustainable in the long term."
"Pakistan has managed to kick the can down the road for a long time. Soon, however, it will reach the end of the road," he writes.
China could gain a foothold in the region
While the Taliban's brutal tactics on the ground in Afghanistan seem to have changed little since the 1990s, in recent weeks, its leaders have been in a full-court press to gain allies and influence abroad.
And, the effort is showing signs of paying off.
The last time the Taliban were in power, they turned Afghanistan into a virtual pariah state — isolated from the rest of the world, save for Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — the only governments willing to recognize them. But in recent weeks, top Taliban leaders have been on a whirlwind international tour, visiting Iran, Russia and China.
China has reportedly promised big investments in energy and infrastructure projects, including the building of a road network in Afghanistan and is also
eyeing
Laurel Miller, the program director for Asia at the International Crisis Group, tells NPR that the Taliban are "on a campaign to secure legitimacy in the eyes of the regional countries and probably countries in the Persian Gulf."
Earlier this week, U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad
said
For the Taliban then, courting other countries is "a way of blunting the ability of the U.S. or others to use the threat of becoming a pariah state again ... as any kind of leverage over them," Miller says.
"The Taliban see China as a source of international legitimacy, a potential economic supporter and a means of influence over Pakistan, a Chinese ally that has aided the group," according to
The Wall Street Journal
Meanwhile, the Taliban could be pushing China and Russia closer as the two countries seek a hedge against the potential for instability in Afghanistan. Both countries are concerned about possible "spillover" of Islamist extremism, Miller says.
Despite their Cold War animus, Beijing and Moscow this week reportedly
deployed 10,000 troops
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