In a typical year, a spike in influenza cases rears its ugly head coming out of the holidays.
This year, health experts are warning that cases were already surging as we enter that period, and the result could wind up stressing the capacity of Massachusetts hospitals.
The UMass Memorial Health system has seen more than twice the number of flu cases as it did this time last year.
“The flu started really ramping up a few weeks ago,” said Dr. Jeanne McCoy, chair of pediatrics at Milford Regional Medical Center, which is part of the UMass Memorial system. That’s an earlier surge than is typical, she added.
“And the cases are increasing a lot more abruptly than they have in the past,” she said.
The most recent state data, for the week ending December 20, shows 7.5% of hospital visits in Massachusetts were for influenza-like illnesses. That was up from 4.5% the prior week. Over that same week, flu cases in the city of Boston increased 93%.
“We’ve seen an abrupt increase that we are sort of already becoming overwhelmed by in the hospital systems,” said Dr. McCoy. “Our hospitals are filling up, and this is the time when we start to see cases increase more significantly. So I do think that there is a potential for a hospital bed crisis, an emergency department crisis, over the next few weeks.”
Statewide, adult medical-surgical bed occupancy was up to 91%as of December 20, according to Dr. Larry Madoff, medical director of the Bureau of Infectious Disease and Laboratory Sciences at the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.
“That is as high as it sounds, but we do frequently run at that kind of a level statewide,” Madoff said.
Even so, Madoff said he’s concerned about keeping enough beds available to treat patients.
“It’s something we keep an eye on, and we work very closely with our partners in healthcare to maintain adequate capacity,” Madoff said. “There’s the ability to share beds between hospitals, hospitals will transfer patients when things get tight. But so far, we’re okay.”
Madoff said the increase in flu cases may be the result of a new variant known as HCN2 subclade K variant, a fast-spreading mutation which saw a recent wave of cases in England.
“This [variant] is a little bit more drifted than usual from the vaccine strain and from prior years to which people would have immunity,” Madoff said. “And so that may be driving a higher rate. Unfortunately, we’re also seeing a somewhat lower rate of immunization this year than in prior years. And that also could be contributing to the severity of the season so far.”
So far, only about a third of eligible people in Massachusetts have gotten a flu shot, Madoff said.
“It’s still going up and I’m optimistic that people seeing this early and high flu season will still take advantage of vaccination opportunities and get themselves vaccinated,” Madoff said. “It is not too late. It does take a couple of weeks for the vaccine to become fully effective. So the sooner the better.”
And he said there are a number of other things people can do to help reduce the spread of the flu, including staying home if they feel sick and wearing a mask around others.
