Economists at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, gazing into their crystal ball, see American farmers planting and harvesting huge amounts of corn, soybeans, and wheat this year. They're predicting a record harvest of corn: 14 billion bushels, up nearly 40 percent over last year's drought-crippled level.
With supply up, prices will fall. The USDA thinks that the price of the average bushel of corn could fall by a third. And soybean production and price are expected to follow a similar track.
Of course, these predictions assume good weather. USDA Chief Economist Joseph Glauber admits that he predicted the same thing last year at this time, but a drought in the Midwest turned anticipated glut into scarcity. Grain prices went up, putting a major squeeze on farmers who raise pigs, chickens, and cattle.
This week, the weather appeared to be cooperating. As Glauber and his colleagues laid out their forecast in a Washington-area hotel, a storm was dumping more than a foot of snow on some of the places that needs it most, including Nebraska, Kansas, and South Dakota.
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