Changing Demographics In New Hampshire Could Sway Primary

We've heard a lot about how white New Hampshire is. To be precise, it's the third-whitest state in the country. But in the last couple of decades, there's been a substantial change in the state's demographics, according to a new report published Tuesday by the University of New Hampshire. WGBH Radio's Tori Bedford is one of our reporters on the ground in New Hampshire for Tuesday's primary. She spoke with WGBH All Things Considered anchor Arun Rath about the report, ahead of Friday night's Democratic presidential candidate debate and next week's primary. This transcript has been edited for clarity.

Arun Rath: We've heard a lot about how white New Hampshire is, but this report finds that it's becoming less white, right?

Tori Bedford: Yes. So this report came out on Tuesday, and I spoke to UNH's senior demographer, Ken Johnson. Johnson said a lot of people are comparing 2020 to the 2008 election, when Barack Obama won. He said the minority population is growing quite a bit. It's still not as racially diverse as the population of the country — it's 90 percent white still in New Hampshire. But there are significant demographic changes happening, and there is a big disparity between 2016 and 2020. Johnson discussed the 2008 election as compared to now.

"If you were to look at the New Hampshire population in 2008 and compare it to the population today, probably 50 percent of the people who will vote in the 2020 election were not in New Hampshire, or not old enough to vote in 2008," said Johnson. "So in 12 years, roughly half of the voting population of the state has turned over."

Rath: So it's a situation of both a more diverse population, but a diverse population that's grown up to be of voting age?

Bedford: Yes, there are other significant demographic changes. Two major forces of work here are the demographic becoming younger, plus there are more people of color. It used to be that New Hampshire was older and whiter. But according to the latest census data, about 20 percent of the people who will be eligible to vote in New Hampshire in this primary either weren't here or were too young to vote in 2016. So in just four years, about 20 percent of the voting population of New Hampshire has changed. There's also a significant number of people who migrated to New Hampshire from other places in the United States, particularly Massachusetts.

"The new voters, the younger voters, and the voters who've moved into New Hampshire from other states both tend to be somewhat more liberal and somewhat less conservative than the population who was here in 2016 and is still eligible to vote in 2020," Johnson said.

Rath: What does this mean, then, for people of color or minority voters in New Hampshire?

Bedford: So I spoke to Sheunesu Moyo, a 44-year-old black man living in Manchester, N.H. He said that he has felt really underrepresented in national elections, and in local elections, even more so.

"In my constituency, my alderman, I'm not happy with my alderman, and I've tried several times to vote him out," said Moyo. "But the demographics, mainly of white, older people, they're the ones who vote for him and keep voting him in every single time."

And Moyo said that he's hopeful that with more immigrants and younger people moving in, there will be a change. But he said that if you're an immigrant and you move in and you don't become politically active, it won't make a difference. So the most important thing, he said, is for people to become politically active and understand the importance of their vote as minorities in a state that is the first in the nation.

"I think the biggest challenge really is, is people being politicized," said Moyo. "There needs to be more of getting out there and letting people, you know, the minorities, the mixed races, the diverse populations know that you can go out and vote and you can make a change. And I think that's where the challenge is. They don't really feel like their vote counts."

Rath: Tori, it's really interesting to hear this about the demographics in New Hampshire. I'm wondering — you've been on the ground there now. How is it scanning with what you're seeing in terms of the voters who are getting ready?

Bedford: I think New Hampshire is just — it's just a fact that New Hampshire is very white. So it's interesting to look at demographic changes and what that might mean and how that might impact races, political races, the primary. And I think it was interesting talking to Moyo. One trend that he also reflects that I have heard from so many voters is that he is still undecided, which is kind of flabbergasting to a lot of people who don't live in New Hampshire. But I think when you live here, a lot of people have told me there's so much pressure put on your vote, and so you really want to be taking in every single cue and knowing every single detail before you vote. A lot of people just aren't even committing or making up their minds, some people say, until they're actually voting.

Read more: Some New Hampshire Democrats Still Grapple With Indecision As First Primary Looms

Rath: So it sounds like this debate that's happening tonight is probably a pretty big deal, with so many undecided.

Bedford: Yes. I think that a lot of people would say having a debate so close to the primary is meaningless if people have already made up their minds. But clearly, there are a lot of voters who have not made up their minds. So it will be significant.

Correction: An earlier version of this interview misstated the size of the white population in New Hampshire. The figure is 90 percent. We regret the error.