Ask Dave Epstein: From snow to cold temperatures, how's winter 2024 going?

A person with a big, fluffy, black-and-white dog walks down a city street. — A passer-by walks their dog in a residential area near the Statehouse on Beacon Hill

Dave Epstein is a meterologist who partners with GBH News to provide daily weather updates and weekly higher-level conversations on Morning Edition.

Gal Tziperman Lotan is a digital producer for GBH’s Morning Edition.

January 23, 2024

Updated January 23, 2024

Paris Alston: This is GBH's Morning Edition. We've made it through the bitter cold of last week, but tonight we will be looking at another round of snow.

Jeremy Siegel: For the latest on what to expect from this and to take stock of the winter so far — how cold it's been, how warm it's been, how much snow we've gotten — we're joined by GBH meteorologist Dave Epstein. Hey there, Dave.

Dave Epstein: Hey, good to see both of you.

Alston: Good to see you, too. So, Dave, to Jeremy's point, where are we in winter right now? I mean, obviously, really, it's January 23, but what are the totals? How are we doing?

Epstein: Yeah. So climatological winter, we're a little over halfway through at this point. Remember that runs from December 1st until the end of February, Feb. 29 this year. And of course, in terms of snowfall March, we still end up with an average of about nine inches. So far this year, we've had 7.9 inches at Logan Airport. That ranks 30th in terms of the least amount of snow. So we're not even in the top 20 least snow. 2007, up to this point, we only had 1.4 inches, 2019 we had 1.8 and another recent year, 4.3, in 2016. So we're just about double that.

Siegel: Looking ahead at the forecast, there is a little bit of snow potentially coming later on. Also further in the week we're seeing highs consistently, like, reaching into the 40s. This has felt like a fairly warm winter overall. I mean, the past few days we've been down in the 20s, the teens, single digits with windchill. But outside of that, it's felt almost like fall this winter. How does this year compare to years past when we look at the temperature?

Epstein: Yeah. So temperature-wise we are running, as of yesterday, 20th-warmest. And many, many, many of those years are the recent years, since 2000. So the top one, 2016, then you've got 2007. Fifth is 2023 — last year — 2002, 2012. So all these 20 years, 15th is 2021, and this year is 20th, are warmer than average. So you are correct. Even though it was cold this weekend, it was, you know, more seasonably unusually cold. What I mean by that is you always get a little bit of cold in January that's colder than average. And that's what we had this weekend. But it wasn't certainly record-breaking or anything like that.

Alston: So we have a dusting coming tonight. We are expecting rain in the forecast as well. Tell us more about what we are going to see and how that fits into this picture.

Epstein: Yeah. So we've got warmer air trying to move northward here over the next couple of days. And as the warm air moves into the cold air, we get a situation called overrunning. Warm air is actually lighter than cold air because it contains moisture. I know it's counterintuitive, but moist air is actually lighter than dry air. You can do the math with your periodic chart if you want, but take my word for it. So here comes the warm air going up and over the cold air. And as it does so, it creates lift. We get some snow. And that's what we're going to get in here as we head for the overnight hours. Now it's not going to be a big deal by any stretch of the imagination, but the timing of it is such that it moves in around 1:00 in the morning. And when you get up tomorrow, about this time, I think there'll be a coating to an inch, maybe two, on the ground. Then we'll get a little bit of a break before we get rain, because now the warm air is going to take over, and that comes in here Wednesday night into the first part of Thursday. There's probably another round of rain as we head for Thursday night into the first part of Friday. But again, as Jeremy mentioned, temperatures are very mild, above average, in the 40s and even lower 50s as we head for the daytime on Friday.

Siegel: So, Dave, you told us that many of the record years of warmer temperatures, of warmer winters have been recently. And I want to talk a little bit about how recent weather shapes the way we talk about the weather. Because yesterday, the first thing Paris and I said to each other was, oh my gosh, it's so cold. Over the past few days, while it's been in the teens and in the 20s, everybody's been talking about how freezing it is. But let's say this were 20, 30 years ago, would we be talking about weather in the teens and the 20s the same way we are now?

Epstein: Yeah, probably not, especially 30, 40, 50 years ago. You can go into the record books and find winters like the one we're having. And this is what I always say: It's not that we didn't have this type of warmth before, or years with less snow. It's that years with less snow, years that are warmer, are now increasing. So as we looked at those top 20 years in terms of warmth in the record books, you know you've got one, two, three, four, five — I'm literally looking at it — six, seven of the top 20 are all since 2000. So it's not evenly distributed because we're warming up. And that's the changing climate. So we don't have as many days in a row below freezing anymore. We don't have as many days below zero anymore. We don't have consistent days where the average is below 20 anymore. That's just the way it is. It doesn't mean we can't get a 2015 February, that's one of the coldest on record. I think it's second or third. Uh, but again, there's fewer and farther between to have these cold bouts.

Alston: Well, that is meteorologist Dave Epstein helping us understand the winter weather and prepare for some of it that is coming our way. And if you ever have a question for Dave about the weather or about the climate or gardening, you can always text those to us at 617-300-2008. Dave, thank you so much.

Epstein: You're welcome.

Siegel: You're listening to GBH's Morning Edition.

Late January can be the time when winter seems endless: The bright lights of the holiday season have mostly been packed up and put away; a persistent layer of salt dust from roads and sidewalks hangs in the air; the sun sets in the 4 p.m. hour. And spring? Who can even think of spring?

From a climatological view, mid-January marks winter’s halfway point, said Dave Epstein, GBH’s meteorologist and gardening expert.

“Climatological winter, we're a little over halfway through at this point,” Epstein said. “Remember: that runs from December 1st until the end of February, Feb. 29 this year.”

So how has Boston fared in the winter of 2023-24 so far? Of course, for a full view, we must wait until the end of the season. But here’s Epstein’s scorecard halfway through.

Snow: Less than average, but not historically low

As of Jan. 22, Logan Airport’s meteorological observation station has seen 7.9 inches of snow.

“That ranks 30th in terms of the least amount of snow,” Epstein said. “In 2007, up to this point, we only had 1.4 inches; 2019 we had 1.8; and another recent year, 4.3, in 2016. So we're just about double that.”

Temperatures: Warmer than average, with some cold snaps

So far, this winter is the 20^th-warmest on record, Epstein said.

“Even though it was cold this weekend, it was, you know, more seasonably unusually cold,” Epstein said. “What I mean by that is you always get a little bit of cold in January that's colder than average. And that's what we had this weekend. But it wasn't certainly record-breaking or anything like that.”

What does it all mean in the broader climatological context?

The record books hold winters similar to this one, Epstein said. But climate is not just a measure of the weather on an individual day, or an individual winter.

“And this is what I always say: It's not that we didn't have this type of warmth before, or years with less snow. It's that years with less snow, years that are warmer, are now increasing,” he said.

New England will still have cold winters, like February of 2015 — one of the coldest on record, part of a record-breaking snowy winter.

“But again, there's fewer and farther between to have these cold bouts,” Epstein said.

As he looked at historical temperatures, he found that seven of the 20 warmest Boston winters on record have occurred since the year 2000.

“It's not evenly distributed because we're warming up. And that's the changing climate,” he said. “We don't have as many days in a row below freezing anymore. We don't have as many days below zero anymore. We don't have consistent days where the average is below 20 anymore. That's just the way it is.”