Despite the pandemic and an uptick in COVID-19 cases, Massachusetts retailers have high hopes for this year's holiday shopping season.

Retailers Association of Massachusetts President Jon Hurst said they are predicting a 6 percent increase in sales over last year. "An average holiday increase, historically over the decades, has been 4 percent," he said. "So typically anything 4 percent or more is considered a very strong holiday season."

Every year, the association's 4,000 members are asked to take part in an annual holiday shopping survey. Hurst said in 2019, they reported that 26 percent of their sales were made online. That number increased to 50 percent last year, and it's risen to 60 percent this year.

Hurst said despite the jump, the real story in 2021 will be the return of the in-person shopper. "They're getting back to a little bit more normalcy. That doesn't mean that online sales won't increase [or] go away — but maybe things are balancing out a little bit more now."

Still, retailers said this year's holiday shopping season has its challenges, with inflation at the top of their list of concerns. "We all have seen that in our shopping and filling up cars and so forth," Hurst said.

Supply chain issues came in second on the list. Hurst said the stores are adequately stocked up, but he advises people to get out there and shop early. "If you're one of these folks that procrastinate until the last weekend or the week before the holiday, you may disappointed on what your selection level is. We're urging consumers to be patient and to be flexible, flexible in their choices."

Hurst said local retailers want to see a big turnout for Small Business Saturday, which this year is Nov. 27.

"Small Business Saturday has evolved a lot over the decades. In the early years, it was more about American Express. And it's really taken on a life of its own, with lots of campaigns at the state level and local level to remind the consumer to get out there and spend."