In the wake of Britain's historic vote to leave the European Union, as world markets have taken a dive and British leaders seem to be quickly backtracking on their previous promises, one question has the world wringing its hands—what's next for the Brexit?
The short answer is: it's complicated.
"The rules have never been written on this," said Charles Sennott, head of The GroundTruth Project. "It's the first divorce court."
What looks increasingly likely, Sennott predicts, is that independence movements in Scotland and Northern Ireland—which voted overwhelmingly to remain part of the EU—could gain momentum.
"Scotland, remember, had that whole vote on whether they would stay in the United Kingdom, and part of that was predicated on the idea that it would be part of the EU," he said. "They're wondering now: did we get played?"
There's also been talk that the Brexit referendum, far from being binding, could merely trigger a series of reforms in the European Union bureaucracy which would encourage Britain to remain after all. The sluggish moves from pro-Brexit leaders post-vote—who have so far seemed reluctant to trigger 'Article 50' and the official exit process —could suggest that's what they're seeking.
"If this is a wake-up call of sorts, if the United Kingdom can pull up its socks and move forward, that's conceivable," Sennott said.
Then again, Germany may have put a nail in that coffin just today by ruling out the possibility of informal talks before Article 50 is officially triggered.
"It's really uncertain where this goes," Sennott said. "We don't know where this is headed."
To hear more from Charles Sennott, tune in to Boston Public Radio above.
