The response to the coronavirus outbreak in China could cause interruptions in the supply of drugs and ingredients used in their manufacture here in the U.S. WGBH News reporter Mark Herz spoke with Rena Conti, a health economist and an associate professor at Boston University’s Questrom, School of Business. The following transcript has been edited for clarity.
Mark Herz: Why would what’s happening in China, including travel restrictions, affect the drug supply here?
Rena Conti: We know that the vast majority of antibiotics and many biologics-based products that are made using mice, or pigs, or cows, those products are largely made in China. Common examples are insulin. And some anti-inflammatory drugs, including Humira, which people use to treat Crohn's disease, to treat arthritis, and other types of related diseases.
Herz: So, what possible effects could the response to the coronavirus in China have on the drug supply chain here?
Conti: It really depends on how much the manufacturers of these products are impacted, both in terms of the factories themselves and also among the workers in those factories.
So, here's a good example: All of the products that are being made are made in factories and we need workers to make those products in these factories. If those workers have to stay home or can't travel to their factories, then production can slow and production can even be halted in some cases.
In addition, products that have already been made and are simply awaiting shipment out of the country to the United States might also be affected by the current situation. And that will impact the supply of those products that are coming into the market relatively soon.
Herz: And are there longer-term impacts?
Conti: The vast majority of drugs that are are stocked on the shelves of pharmacies, they are stocked well in advance. And shipments are ordered well in advance as well. So, Americans shouldn't panic. The vast majority of drugs that they need to take care of themselves, those are stocked and available on the shelves of pharmacies.
What we're really concerned about is the supply of these products over time and when exactly that might be. We don't really know, but it's likely a year or 18 months from now.
Herz: And the products that might be more likely to have a problem, what might they be?
Conti: Generic drugs, the drugs that the vast majority of people in the U.S. who are taking prescription drugs take and for which there is no alternative supply. And also products in several categories that are largely manufactured in China or overseas more generally, which include antibiotics and then some products that either have a biological basis to them. Or where their manufacturing entails heavy metals or other types of manufacturing processes that really can't be done in other places.
Herz: A former director of the FDA's Office of Pharmaceutical Quality told STAT, "The time to worry is now." Would you agree?
Conti: I agree. And that's because it's been known for a while that Americans' access to prescription drugs — particularly the drugs they use every single day, generic, off-patent drugs, are vulnerable to supply issues. So, it was very smart of the Trump administration to exempt prescription drugs from tariffs that were imposed on China in the past couple of years. And in part, that was a recognition, if you will, that our access to drugs is fundamentally linked to international trade and, specifically, the role of China in the manufacturing of many of these products.
Herz: Are there people in Massachusetts in biotech worrying about this? And if so, what might their response be?
Conti: The vast majority of companies in the Boston area are pretty well insulated from this potential supply problem. However, for many people sitting in their offices in biotech companies in Cambridge and other places, they're thinking about, ‘OK. Well, how vulnerable is my supply? Are there are there alternatives suppliers that can help me?’ And the longer this crisis potentially goes, even if their supply is not vulnerable now, their supply might be in the future. I suspect they're putting together plans right now to reduce their expected costs and also reduce their expected exposure or risk.
