Regular voters in targeted Boston neighborhoods have been swamped with mailers and handouts, and their phones have been ringing regularly with the cheery voices of campaign volunteers or robo calls.
Some of that has come from the mighty Marty Walsh re-election campaign, which finally opened up its wallet to spend a quarter-million dollars in the last half of October — roughly half on printing and mailing.
But a lot has come courtesy of city council candidates.
Many of those candidates have raised, and spent, impressive amounts, thanks to new contribution limits — $1,000 per calendar year, double the $500 limit in place for ages — and intense interest among powerful parties.
All four of the final candidates in District 1 and District 2 have topped the quarter-million mark in contributions. Those are figures that, in the past, were only reached by the most aggressive at-large candidates.
And the four at-large candidates, though all seemingly coasting to re-election, have upped their own fundraising games, in what looks like sharp jockeying for final position, with an eye to the future.
There’s plenty to watch outside of Boston this election day, too. Here’s a quick guide to Tuesday’s action.
Marty's Move?
Tito Jackson promises a shocking upset, and perhaps he will make good on that. More likely, he will be trying to finish well enough — and graciously enough — to walk away as a credible political force and voice for the city’s underserved populations. The minimal bar is Maura Hennigan’s 32% against Tom Menino in 2005, which Jackson can top if his home district, other black residents, and some progressive enclaves show up for him. If he’s closer to the 23% posted by Peggy Davis-Mullens against Menino in 2001, Jackson’s political future may be grim.
For Walsh, the victory margin is less important than putting the re-election behind him.
It’s a poorly guarded secret that Walsh has his eye on the 2022 race for Governor. If he goes through with that, it is likely he will step down as mayor after two terms rather than run for re-election in 2021 — meaning that this Tuesday would be his last city-wide election.
Listen carefully to Walsh’s victory speech Tuesday night, for clues about whether he is thinking beyond the local.
Keep an eye also on whether Attorney General Maura Healey speaks at Walsh’s event, and when. Healey, who endorsed and campaigned for Walsh, is also a likely gubernatorial candidate in 2022. Beginning Tuesday, Walsh may be wary of helping her get any spotlight time.
District Duels
Who would have imagined that a proxy war between the old Ray Flynn and Tom Menino machines would get a little dirty?
In District 2, former Menino aide Michael Kelley has been surrounded by team Menino from the start; Ed Flynn, son of Ray, has had much of the South Boston political muscle on his side.
Flynn seemed to deliver a knockout blow with a strong preliminary victory margin. But Kelley has fought back hard, looking to boost his vote in the South End, Chinatown, and among younger Southie residents.
Kelley has been pummeling that target audience with mailers and digital ads depicting himself as the progressive choice, and Flynn as “anti-choice … anti-equality … anti-immigrant.” There have also been allegations of illegal “vote farming” with Chinatown absentee ballots.
It’s unlikely that many voters will think that they are taking sides in a decades-old feud between political clans, but behind the scenes, one group will come away feeling still powerful and relevant in Boston politics, and the other will look washed up.
Likewise, it has become almost inevitable that Stephen Passacantilli’s fate in District 1 will be viewed as a test of Walsh’s strength. Although the mayor has been cute about formally endorsing his close aide, his tacit support has helped Passacantilli raise a stunning $369,000. Walsh also OK’d final-week campaign literature proclaiming his support.
Among the many backing Passacantilli’s opponent, Lydia Edwards? Maura Healey. Who, by the way, happens to live in the district, in Charlestown.
Healey has also backed Kelley, and Kim Janey in Roxbury’s District 7. Janey has most of the institutional backing, and funding, in her race to succeed Jackson on the council. Rufus Faulk, however, has run an impressive campaign and has made it an interesting contest.
At-Large Jostling
If Walsh does turn his attention to statewide office rather than running for mayor again in four years, at least three of the four at-large city councilors will take a good look at running for his office. Michael Flaherty, Ayanna Pressley, and Michelle Wu would all like to be able to call themselves the ticket-topping citywide candidate — and thus, by inference, the most plausible mayoral candidate.
In reality, it probably won’t matter which of them got slightly more votes than the other in 2017. But don’t let them tell you they don’t covet the honor.
Two years ago, it was Pressley, followed by Wu and Flaherty. Annissa Essaibi George finished a strong fourth, knocking out Steve Murphy.
Essaibi George has raised a solid amount — more than $150,000 since the start of 2016. She would love to finish in close proximity to the other three, so as not to look like a tempting target for someone to run against in 2019.
The other three are all aiming higher. Pressley, usually not a huge fundraiser, has raised close to $300,000 this cycle. Flaherty and Wu have eached raised over $400,000.
Flaherty could benefit from high turnout in South Boston for the Flynn-Kelley showdown, and in Dorchester enclaves that came out strong for Walsh in 2013. But Pressley has become a city-wide powerhouse, and Wu has raised her profile as council president.
Around The Bay State
Cities around Massachusetts are also voting this Tuesday, with a variety of mayoral and city council races that have been far from sleepy.
Watch for the fate of two Republican mayors: Judith Flanagan of Lynn, and Kevin Dumas of Attleboro, challenged respectively by state senator Tom McGee and state representative Paul Heroux. The challengers, both Democrats, topped both incumbents in the preliminary elections.
Boston will continue its unbroken streak of male mayors, but women are looking to keep or attain the office elsewhere. In Newton, Ruthanne Fuller’s campaign to succeed Setti Warren got a late boost from Scott Lennon’s ill-advised remarks that seemed to denigrate women who take time off from their careers. In Framingham — newly minted as a city, and choosing its first mayor and councilors — Yvonne Spicer faces off against former state representative John Stefanini. Two women, Nicole LaChapelle and Joy Winnie, are the finalists for the open position in Easthampton. Stephanie Burke tries to retain her position as mayor of Medford, against a challenge from David McKillop, and Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll faces a tough challenge from city councilor Paul Prevey.
Driscoll, who has long been thought of as a potential statewide candidate, is one of a few who could, potentially, announce 2018 plans after their re-election.
Driscoll’s name is listed as a “potential candidate” for governor, on a 2018 list of women candidates maintained by Rutgers’s Center for American Women and Politics. (When I pointed this out recently on Twitter, Driscoll responded “Hoping the good people of Salem will elect me for another 4 years…no matter what the Scarlet Knights are saying,” a reference to the Rutgers team mascot.
Jim Fiorentino, unopposed in Haverhill, has indicated that once he puts his re-election behind him, he might enter the race for U.S. Congress where Niki Tsongas is retiring in 2018.
Many considered Lawrence Mayor Daniel Rivera a strong potential congressional candidate. Unfortunately for him, he’s facing a bitter rematch with former mayor Willie Lantigua, in one of the closest-watched races in the state.
There’s also an interesting state representative special election in Haverhill, pitting city councilor Andy Vargas, a Democrat, against school committeeman Shaun Toohey, a Republican.
Guess who was in Haverhill campaigning for Vargas this weekend? Yup, Maura Healey.
Healey has also endorsed Burke, LaChapelle, and other mayoral and city council candidates around the state.
Just something to keep your eye on.