This Tuesday ends the primary voting season, which feels like it’s gone through several soap opera seasons’ worth of melodrama and plot twists. Hard to believe it began only four months ago. Does anyone remember the February 1 Iowa caucuses?
In other words: there is more time left between now and the November election than has passed between Iowa and now. Yikes.
The general election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, which has been ramping up in recent weeks, goes full-throttle Tuesday evening. True, their official nominations—and semi-official fall campaign kickoffs—don’t happen until the July conventions (which have been scheduled earlier than usual), but with no more partisan contest votes to worry about, the two candidates will be free to focus on the battle between themselves.
With that in mind, here are a few things to watch for, in the hours, days, and weeks following the polls closing Tuesday.
Bernie’s behavior There are two equally plausible explanations for Bernie Sanders’s continuing insistence that he will push his candidacy all the way to the convention, fight to persuade superdelegates to back him, and contest the nomination at a “messy” convention.
He might actually intend to do so. Or, he wants to maintain the illusion of a path to victory for the benefit of his followers in the final primary states.
And why wouldn’t he? Thousands of people in those states—particularly California—have devoted their time and money to his effort; he is giving them an opportunity to go to the ballot box feeling that he still wants their vote.
Besides, keeping their hopes up gives him a chance to win California, which gives him a better negotiating hand with the Clinton campaign and a more impressive legacy for the political history books.
There’s no way for us to know which of the two scenarios lies in Sanders’s head—until the polls close in California Tuesday evening, and there are no more primary votes left to cast.
After that, it shouldn’t take long to start picking up signals from Sanders and his team.
Republicans for Hillary One of the frequent laments from Team Clinton is the “normalizing” of Trump. That is, the normal process of treating him like any other major-party Presidential nominee makes him seem like a perfectly normal, legitimate Presidential nominee. Clinton would much rather people view Trump as a bizarre anomaly with no business so close to power.
One key way of achieving the latter impression would be a stream of Republican stalwarts—the more prominent the better—endorsing the Democratic nominee. A small version of that in 2008, featuring Colin Powell and Bill Weld, sent a strong signal about John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running-mate. One would expect an even greater defection over a dangerous demagogue at the top of the ticket.
So far, few have made that declaration. Even the remaining “Never Trump” GOPers—including Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker—have not committed to casting a vote for Clinton.
That might change after Tuesday. It’s possible that the Clinton campaign hasn’t wanted to roll out Republican endorsements yet, for fear of turning off Democratic voters in the remaining primary states. Also, some Republicans might have been holding out hope for a third-party avenue that just fell through: David French, recruited by conservative leader Bill Kristol to run as an independent, Tweeted Sunday night that he has decided not to run.
So, we should soon get some indication of whether the Clinton campaign has been able to convince Republicans to endorse her over Trump.
Battle for the news cycle During the primaries, Trump seemed always capable of directing the news cycle. If attention started to focus on the wrong place—his businesses, taxes, or staff problems—he would, like a masterful magician, do something compelling to draw attention away.
The Clinton campaign has already begun to show its determination to not let him get away with that in the general election. We’ve already seen evidence of that; her biting foreign policy speech last week, for example, was designed to drive media coverage and succeeded beautifully.
That’s been a warm-up up, however. Clinton has not wanted to seem fully focused on Trump, and risk looking like she’s taking primary votes in California, New Jersey and the others for granted.
Even so, Clinton has exposed how unprepared Trump’s organization is for the rapid-response battle to come. Badly understaffed, the Trump campaign could not even respond to Clinton’s speech by putting surrogates out with rebuttal talking points.
Without anything like a normal Presidential campaign infrastructure, Trump is increasingly relying on the Republican National Committee (RNC) to pick up much of the slack. But that arrangement showed its weakness this weekend, when Trump made controversial comments about the judge in his Trump U lawsuit. The RNC and other Republican organizations and individuals wanted no part of that conversation—or, if they were willing, didn’t know what to say about it.
Trump’s only response is his own nearly nonstop media appearances, and coverage of his campaign speeches. But even there, television media has begun to acquiesce less and less to Trump’s manipulations.
So, keep a close eye not only on how aggressively Clinton’s team attempts to control news cycles, but also on whether Trump begins to build up his own communications operation in recognition of the new challenge—and how willing other Republicans are to help him.
Bouncing polls As polls tightened between Clinton and Trump recently, many speculated that this was a normal “bounce” for Trump, from wrapping up the party nomination. Doing so, the theory goes, simultaneously elevates the candidate’s stature, and consolidates support among those who previously supported other candidates in the party.
The effect, in Trump’s case, came not when pundits thought it was essentially over, or when he actually reached the number of pledged delegates to ensure his nomination. It came when the last competitors, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich withdrew from the race.
Likewise, the Clinton clinching bounce might depend upon when, or whether, Sanders concedes the race.
If Clinton does get a bounce and extends her polling lead, that is likely to affect Trump’s behavior and strategy—and could also impact his ability to raise money, and to prevent defectors from his party from endorsing Clinton or the Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson and Bill Weld.
It could also keep Clinton in the safe cocoon strategy she and her campaign favor—the one that has kept her virtually unreachable by the press for months.
If the bounce doesn’t materialize, however, we could soon see Clinton’s campaign on its heels—and her Democratic allies panicking.
