Sept. 30, 2009 : Imprisoned in Iran

WHEN WE CONTINUE, A HARROWING

TALE OF CAPTIVITY IN IRAN.

THE REVELATION THAT IRAN WAS

BUILDING A SECOND URANIUM

ENRICHMENT PLAN HAS SPARKED

FEARS THAT IT INTENDS TO

PRODUCE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

THE PRESIDENT SAYS THE NUCLEAR

PLANT IS FOR CIVILIAN ENERGY

USE, BUT THERE WAS GREATER

CONCERN AFTER IRAN TEST FIRED

MISSILES CAPABLE OF HITTING

ISRAEL AND U.S. TARGETS IN THE

MIDEAST.

IRANIAN SCHOLAR HALEH

ESFANDIARI RECOUNTS HER TIME

AS A POLITICAL PRISONER IN HER

NEW BOOK "MY PRISON, MY HOME,"

ONE WOMAN'S STORY OF CAPTIVITY

IN IRAN.

HALEH ESFANDIARI IS HERE, A

LONG WITH STEPHEN WALT FROM

HARVARD'S KENNEDY SCHOOL OF

GOVERNMENT.

WELCOME TO BOTH OF YOU.

I HAVE TO TELL YOU, I WAS

PLANNING TO SKIM YOUR BOOK

TODAY.

I STARTED READING IT AND COULD

NOT PUT IT DOWN.

AND THIS WAS RECENT.

YOU WERE HELD IN CAPTIVITY

FROM DECEMBER 31 OF 2006

THROUGH EIGHT MONTHS OF 2007.

THE GOVERNMENT IS STILL LIKE

THAT THERE.

THEY WERE TRYING TO GET YOU TO

CONFESS THAT YOU WERE PART OF

SOME SCHEME TO OVERTHROW THE

GOVERNMENT THERE.

BUT IT'S STILL LIKE THAT

THERE.

>> YES, BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS

THAT THIS TIME THEY'VE GONE

AFTER THEIR OWN PEOPLE.

THE LEADER OF THE REFORMIST

MOVEMENT, THE FORMER VICE

PRESIDENT, FORMER MEMBERS OF

PARLIAMENT, FORMER CABINET

MINISTERS, PEOPLE WITH

IMPECCABLE CREDENTIALS, THIS

IS PUZZLING.

>> HAVEN'T THEY ALWAYS DONE

THAT?

WHEN A NEW REGIME COMES IN,

THEY GO AFTER CREDIBLE PEOPLE

WHO WERE PART OF ANOTHER RAY

YEEM.

>> NO, NOT WITH SUCH

VENGEANCE.

THAT HAS BEEN MUSH TO ARREST

THEM, PUT THEM ON TRIAL, THESE

MOCK TRIALS WHERE NOBODY

BELIEVES WHAT IS SAID, FORCED

CONFESSIONS.

THIS IS VERY UNUSUAL.

I GET THE SENSE THEY JUST WANT

TO PUT AN END TO THE REFORMIST

MOVEMENT ALTOGETHER.

BUT THEY WON'T SUCCEED.

>> WELL, ARE WE SURE ABOUT

THIS WHOLE THING WITH THE

NUCLEAR CAPABILITY?

DO WE KNOW FOR SURE OR IS IT

ANOTHER SCARE TACTIC LIKE WE

SAW BACK WHEN COLIN POWELL

TESTIFIED BEFORE THE U. N.

SAYING WE WERE CERTAIN ABOUT

IRAQ?

ARE WE CERTAIN?

>> IN THIS CASE WE KNOW THAT

THEY WERE BUILDING A NEW

ENRICHMENT FACILITY BECAUSE IN

FACT THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT

BEFORE PRESIDENT OBAMA MADE

THE ANNOUNCEMENT HAD SENT A

NOTIFICATION TO THE

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY

AGENCY THAT THEY WERE IN FACT

CONSTRUCTING A NEW FACILITY.

WE DON'T KNOW IF WHAT EXACTLY

IS INSIDE THE FACILITY, THE

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY

AGENCY IS NOW ASKED TO INSPECT

IT.

THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT HAS

SAID THEY'RE GOING TO BE ABLE

TO, ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT YET

SAID WHEN.

BUT THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT

THEY'RE CONSTRUCTING AN

ENRICHMENT FA SIT THERE.

WHAT THAT TELLS US ABOUT THEIR

LONG-TERM INTENTIONS AND WHAT

WHAT WE SHOULD DO ABOUT IT IS

SOMETHING SEPARATE.

>> READING THE PARTS OF YOUR

BOOK WHERE YOU TALK ABOUT HOW

OBSESSED THEY WERE ABOUT THE

FACT THAW WERE MARRYED TO A

JEW, THAT YOUR HUSBAND WAS

JEWISH AND YOU HAD BEEN LIVING

IN AMERICA FOR ALL THOSE

YEARS.

YOU SAY YOU'RE IRANIAN, YOU

KEPT YOUR THAIS.

BUT THEIR HATRED TOWARD ISRAEL,

IT'S IRRA00 AL.

THERE'S NO OTHER WAY TO SAY

IT.

>> I THINK WHAT IS LEFT OF THE

--

IT'S BASICALLY THIS HATRED AND

DISLIKE FOR THE STATE OF

ISRAEL.

THE PRESIDENT TRIED TO TONE

DOWN THAT HARSH RHETORIC, BUT

PRESIDENT AHMADINEJAD HAS

CONTINUED AND HE EVEN BROUGHT

IN THE HOLOCAUST STORY.

>> BROUGHT IT INTO QUESTION.

>> YES.

>> THERE IS REALLY AMONG THE

LEADERSHIP, BUT IF YOU GO

AMONG THE PEOPLE, THEY

BASICALLY DON'T CARE.

>> IT WOULD BE HARD TO BELIEVE

THAT THEY WOULD ACTUALLY ACT

OUT THIS FANTASY IN A SENSE.

IT WOULD BE MET WITH

RESISTANCE FROM MOST OF IT,

ALTHOUGH RUSSIA AND CHINA,

WE'RE NOT SURE WHERE THEY

WOULD STAND ON THIS.

BUT WOULD THEY ACT ON THIS?

>> YOU MEAN SOME KIND OF

NUCLEAR --

>> YES.

SEND A MISSILE OVER TO ISRAEL.

>> NO.

I THINK THERE'S VIRTUALLY NO

CHANCE THEY WOULD EVER DO SUCH

A THING.

IF YOU LOOK CAREFULLY AT

AHMADINEJAD'S STATEMENTS, HE

SAID SOME DEEPLY OFFENSIVE

THINGS ABOUT THE HOLOCAUST, HE

DID NOT ACTUALLY EVER THREAT

TONE ANNIHILATE ISRAEL WITH

NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

THEIR HOPE IS THAT PERHAPS

ISRAEL WOULD COLLAPSE THE SAME

WAY THE SOVIET UNION DID,

WHICH ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN

EITHER.

IF AT SOME POINT THEY WERE TO

ACQUIRE A NUCLEAR WEAPON OR A

HANDFUL OF THEM, THEY WOULD

STILL BE FACING AN AMERICAN

DETER END THREAT, THEY WOULD

BE FACING LL'S --

ISRAEL'S OWN NUCLEAR ARSENAL.

I THINK THE RISK OF A NUCLEAR

STRIKE IS VERY SMALL.

THERE ARE OTHER REASONS WHY

WOE WOULD RATHER IRAN DID NOT

GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND WE

SHOULD BE TRYING TO PERSUADE

THEM NOT TO GO THAT ROUTE.

BUT I THINK THE APOCALYPTIC

VISIONS WE'RE WORRIED ABOUT

ARE EXAGGERATED.

>> ONE OF THE WORRIES IS US

GOING IN THERE.

I'D LIKE TO GET BOTH OF YOUR

FEELINGS ON WHAT THE

POSSIBILITY OF THAT IS AND

WHAT IT WOULD MEAN?

>> I DON'T THINK THE UNITED

STATES INTENDS TO GO INTO IRAN,

DEFINITELY NOT.

AND IN A WAY THE INTELLIGENCE

MINISTRY PEOPLE WHO ARE

RUNNING THE SHOW ALONGSIDE THE

OTHER SECURITY FORCES BELIEVE

THAT THE U.S. IS BOGGED DOWN

IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN AND

WOULD NEVER RESORT TO A

MILITARY ATTACK IN IRAN,

THAT'S WHY IT'S TRYING TO

UNDERMINE THE REGIME THROUGH

REVOLUTION.

SO I DON'T THINK THAT THERE IS

A FEAR OF THE U.S. GETTING

INVOLVED MILITARILY IN IRAN.

>> I AGREE WITH THAT.

THERE'S NO OPTION FOR AN

AMERICAN INVASION NOW.

WE DON'T ARE THE FORCES AND

THERE WOULD BE NO PUBLIC

SUPPORT FOR THAT.

THERE IS THE, AT LEAST IN

THEORY THE OPTION OF AIR

STRIKES BY THE UNITED STATES,

CONCEIVABLY ALSO BY ISRAEL.

BUT THOSE DON'T SOLVE THE

NUCLEAR PROBLEM, THEY JUST

WOULD DELAY IT PERHAPS FOR A

FEW YEARS, THEY COULD ALWAYS

REBUILD THE PROGRAM.

YOU OBVIOUSLY CAN'T DO AN AIR

STRIKE AGAINST ANY FACILITIES

THAT WE HAVEN'T FOUND. SO IF

THERE ARE ANY KRET PERHAPS,

YOU CAN'T ATTACK THOSE.

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AREN'T

LIKELY TO WORK EITHER.

THEY'VE BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME

TIME.

WE AREN'T GOING TO GET

STRICTER ONES BECAUSE RUSSIA

AND CHINA PROBABLY WON'T

SUPPORT REALLY TOUGH

SANCTIONS.

SO THE ONLY AVENUE AVAILABLE

TO US IS DIPLOMACY, AND THAT

WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT

DIPLOMACY AS WELL.

>> READING YOUR BOOKS, I

STARTED THINKING ABOUT THE

LEVEL OF SOPHISTICATION, AT

ONE LEVEL IT'S VERY CRUDE AND

VERY BASIC.

TRYING TO COERCE PEOPLE INTO

SAYING THINGS THAT AREN'T

TRUE, AND MORE THAN COERCE,

HAMMERING YOU FOR WEEKS AND

MONTHS.

AND ON THE OTHER HAND, WHY IS

THAT SO IMPORTANT TO THEM, AND

THEN HERE THEY ALSO ARE THE

ABILITY TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR

WEAPONS.

IT SEEMS INCON GREWOUS IN A

SENSE.

THEY DON'T SEEM SOPHISTICATED

ON ONE LEVEL, YET THEY ARE ON

ANOTHER.

>> THE IRANIANS ARE VERY GOOD

IN THE SCIENCES, AND MATH AND

SO ON.

AND THIS IS, THE NUCLEAR

PROGRAM IS IN IRAN IS

INDIGENOUS, BASICALLY.

THE IRANIAN SCIENTISTS WORKING

ON THE ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM

AND BUILDING THE SITE AND SO

ON.

BUT THE PARANOIA OF THE

INTELLIGENCE MINUTE TRY HAS

NOTHING TO DO WITH IT.

THEY BELIEVE THAT ONCE AND FOR

ALL THEY CAN GET RID OF THE

REFORMISTS WHO MIGHT BRING IN

SOME CHANGE IN OPENING UP THE

SOCIETY REACHING OUT TO THE

WEST, AND ON THE OTHER HAND IF

THERE IS GOING TO BE AN

AGREEMENT, THEY WANT TO BE THE

ONE WHO HAVE BROKERED THAT

AGREEMENT, YOU KNOW.

SO THAT'S WHAT IS HAPPENING.

THERE IS A STORY NOW

CIRCULATING AND I THINK, I

DON'T KNOW WHAT THERE IS IN IT,

BUT IT'S JUST CIRCULATING.

WHAT THAT MEANS I DON'T KNOW.

>> ALL RIGHT.

THANK YOU BOTH FOR COMING SO

MUCH.

APPRECIATE YOUR TIME TODAY.

>> THANK YOU.

>>