May 13, 2010: Are the GOP's negative ads hurting Tim Cahill's campaign?

>> Rooney: WHAT A DIFFERENCE
A MONTH MAKES IN APRIL.
STATE TREASURER TIM CAHILL
WAS RUNNING A CLOSE SECOND
IN THE GOVERNOR'S RACE BUT A
NEW POLL SUGGESTS THAT
CAHILL WHOSE CAMPAIGNING AS
AN INDEPENDENT IS FADING
FAST.
THAT'S GOOD NEWS FOR
REPUBLICAN CHARLIE BAKER
WHOSE'S VIING WITH CAHILL
FOR THE STATE'S CONSERVATIVE
VOTE.
BUT THE TREASURER SAYS DON'T
COUNT HIM OUT YET.
ANYWAY YOU SPIN IT, THE
RESULTS OF THE LATEST POLL
SHOW THAT INDEPENDENT
GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE TIM
CAHILL HAS TAKEN A HIT AND
THE GUNNERS APPEAR TO BE THE
REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR'S
ASSOCIATION WHICH HAS BEEN
RUNNING THESE ADS AIMED AT
CAHILL.

>> BEACON HILL'S A MESS.
TIM CAHILL'S MAKING IT WORSE.

>> Rooney: WITH NO
PARTY-BASED FUND-RAISING
ORASIS DANCE FROM OUTSIDE
GROUPS LIKE THE REPUBLICAN
GOVERNORS, CAHILL IS TAKING
A DO IT YOURSELF APPROACH
USING HIS WEB SITE.

>> PEOPLE ARE SICK AND TIRED
OF THE OLD WAY OF PARTY
POLITICS.
ATTACK ADS WON'T FIX OUR
ECONOMY.
ATTACK ADS WON'T CREATE JOB
FORCE THE MIDDLE CLASS.

>> Rooney: BUT FIGHTING
RADIO AND TV ADS ON-LINE IS
A BIT LIKE BRINGING A KNIFE
TO A GUN PLACE.
STILL CAHILL INSISTS CAN
OVERCOME HIS LACK OF MAJOR
PARTY SUPPORT.

>> WE'LL JUST WORKER-- WORK
HARDER THAN ANYONE ELSE, GET
UP EARLIER, STAY UP LATER
AND MEET MORE PEOPLE.

>> Rooney: VOTERS MAY BE
STRUGGLING WITH CAHILLS
POSITIONS HIMSELF WITH A
BEACON HILL OUTSIDER WITH
EIGHT YEARS AS STATE
TREASURER AND THE FACT THAT
HE JUST LEFT THE DEMOCRATIC
EITHER LAST YEAR.
BUT CAHILL SAYS HE HAS
ALREADY PROVED HIS
INDEPENDENCE.

>> I THINK THAT'S WHY THE
REPUBLICANS ATTACKED US.
BECAUSE PEM WERE SEEING ME
FOR WHO I AM WHICH IS A REAL
INDEPENDENT-MINDED PERSON.
REGARDLESS TO WHAT PARTY I
USED TO BE IN.

>> Rooney: AND HE ADDS THE
POLL DIDN'T LOOK GOOD FOR
SCOTT BROWN EITHER.

>> IF SCOTT BROWN HAD
DECIDED BASED ON A POLL IN
DECEMBER THAT HE WASN'T
GOING TO RUN BECAUSE HE WAS
30 POINTS DOWN, HE WOULDN'T
BE SENATOR TODAY.

>> Rooney: AT A RALLY
TONIGHT IN DORCHESTER'S
FLORIAN HALL CAHILL WILL
URGE HIS SUPPORTERS TO
REDOUBLE THEIR EFFORTS.
THEY'LL HAVE TO ACT FAST.
AND JOINING ME IS FORMER
LT. GOVERNOR KERRY HEALEY
AND POLITICAL ANSYS-- ANALYST
WARREN TOLMAN.
WELCOME.
I TALKED TO A LOT OF PEOPLE
ON THIS ISSUE.
THE JOHN WALSH FROM THE
MASSACHUSETTS STATE PARTY
AND JENNIFER NASSAUR,
EVERYBODY IS TAKING THE HIGH
ROAD AND SAY WE WISH THE
REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR'S
ASSOCIATION WASN'T DOING
THIS I DON'T REALLY THINK
THAT'S THE THING THAT IS HAD
THE AFFECT ON THE POLLING OR
TIM CAHILL.
IT IS OTHER FACTORS.
BUT I THINK THOSE ADS ARE
DYNAMITE, ESPECIALLY THE
RADIO ONCE THEM ARESY
EFFECTIVE, DO YOU THINK.

>> A GEE WITH YOU.
I THINK THE RADIO AD IN
PARTICULAR WAS HUMOROUS AND
GOT THE MESSAGE ACROSS IN A
SOFT WAY.
BUT PUT IT ALL OUT THERE.
AND LOOK, THIS IS
INFORMATION THAT WAS GOING
TO GET OUT THERE.
ALL OF THE PEOPLE IN THIS
RACE, WHETHER IT IS PATRICK
OR CAHILL OR CHARLIE BAKER,
THEY ALL HAVE RECORDS.
THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO RUN
ON THEIR RECORDS, THIS
INFORMATION WAS GOING TO GET
OUT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER.

>> THE DANGER, HOWEVER S
THAT IT IS GETTING OUT THERE
AT A TIME BEFORE TIM CAHILL
HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO
DEFINE WHO HE IS.
AND THE DANGER FOR TIM
CAHILL.
AND SO WITH NOTHING ON THE
SLATE, THE SLATE BECOMES
PAINTED BY THE REPUBLICAN
GOVERNOR'S ASSOCIATION IN A
VERY NEGATIVE MANNER.
AND IT'S DIFFICULT FOR A
CANDIDATE TO BOUNCE BACK
FROM THAT.
AND IF YOU ARE TIM CAHILL OR
ONE OF HIS SUPPORTERS WE ARE
SAYING WE DON'T DO INNING
AND RESPOND TO THIS AND
START TO TELL PEOPLE THE
OTHER SIDE OF TIM CAHILL
THAT COULD DEFINE WHO HE IS
AND HE MAY NEVER GET UP FROM
WHATEVER 13, 14%.

>> Rooney: BUT WARREN, TIM
CAHILL ISN'T A BLAKE SLATE.

>> HE HAS BEEN AROUND FOR
EIGHT YEARS, HE IS NOT AN
OUTSIDER, HE IS NOT THIS NEW
PERSON THAT PEOPLE NEED TO
LEARN ABOUT.
THERE ARE FACT ITS AND HE'S
GOING TO HAVE TO EXPLAIN
THEM, FACE UP TO THEM.
IT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED AT
SOME POINT.

>> HE'S NOT A BLANK SLATE
BUT WHEN PEOPLE VOTE FOR
GOVERNOR IT'S TOTALLY
DIFFERENT THAN WHEN THEY
VOTE FOR SECRETARY OF STATE
OR TREASURER OR AUDITOR OR
ATTORNEY GENERAL.
IT'S A WHOLE DIFFERENT
ANALYSIS THAT TAKES PLACE.
AND THIS IS REALLY HIS FIRST
TIME IN THE LIMELIGHT.
TIM CAHILL IS TRYING TO
DEFINE HIMSELF AS SOMEBODY
DIFFERENT THAN HE WAS BEFORE,
AS AN INDEPENDENT PERSON,
NOT AS A DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATE FOR THE STATE
TREASURER.
AND ET CETERA'S GOING TO GET
PIGEONHOLED QUICKLY AS
SOMEONE WHO WASN'T A VERY
GOOD STUART OF THE TREASURER
REE IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE
PENSIONS AND THE LIKE.
AND IF THAT HAPPENS, HE MAY
NEVER RECOVER FROM IT.

>> WELL, AND MOREOVER IT
REALLY JUST RUINS THE
ARGUMENT THAT HE'S AN
OUTSIDER.
HE SN AN OUTSIDER.
OBVIOUSLY HE'S BEEN ON THE
INSIDE FOR EIGHT YEARS.
HE HAS ALL OF THESE DEALINGS
THAT HE WILL HAVE TO, PLAIN
IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
SO IF PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR
A GENUINE CHANGE THEY WILL
BE LOOKING AT CHARLIE BAKER,
THEY ARE NOT GOING TO BE
LOOKING AT TIM CAHILL.

>> THE OUTSIDER WHO WAS THE
SECRETARY OF ADMINISTRATION
FINANCE A COUPLE-- IN THE
CABINET SECRETARY.
TIM CAHILL IS CLEARLY GOING
TO THE RIGHT HERE.
HE'S ACTUALLY --

>> IS THAT A GOOD THING.

>> HE'S TRYING TO PEEL OFF,
YOU KNOW IT THE
CONSERVATIVES THAT MIGHT
ORDINARILY HEAD TOWARDS
CHARLIE BAKER.
I REALLY QUESTION WHETHER
TIM CAHILL IS PERSONALLY
THAT CONSERVATIVE.

>> I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT
HIS RECORD, GOING BACK TO
THE QUINCEY CITY COUNCIL HE
WAS AGAINST THINGS, YOU KNOW,
THEY WERE 13-1 VOTES WHERE
TIM CAHILL VOTED AGAINST
ORGANIZED LABOR ON SOME
POSITIONS IN QUINCEY WHERE
HE STOOD UP AND SAID NO,
THERE WAS A PETITION AGAINST
THE GRADUATED INCOME TAX AND
TIM CAHILL WAS THE ONLY VOTE
AGAINST IT.
AND EVERYBODY ELSE VOTE
APPROXIMATED FOR IT.
SO HE HAS SOME BONA FIND
CONSERVATIVE CREDENTIALS
THAT HE IS MARKETING.

>> UNTIL FOUR MONTHS AGO HE
DIDN'T SUPPORT THE INCOME
TAX ROLLBACK.
SO I AM WITH EMILY ON THIS
ONE.
I'M NOT SO SURE THAT HE IS
ACTUALLY CONSERVATIVE.

>> Rooney: I WAS SURPRISED
AT HIS POSITION ON THE JEFF
PIRY IMMIGRATION BILL, HE
SAID HE WOULD SUPPORT THAT.

>> YEAH, WELL, YOU KNOW, I
THINK HE'S PLAYING TO-- HE
WAS AT THE TEA PARTY EVENT.
HE WENT TO THE TEA PARTY
EVENT TO OBSERVE BUT TIM
CAHILL WAS IN, HIS RUNNING
MATE WERE THERE, CHARLIE
BAKER AND RICHARD TISEI
DIDN'T WANT ANYTHING TO DO
WITH IT.
HE FEELS COMFORTABLE IN THAT
SETING WITH SOME OF THESE
PEOPLE IT IS UP TO THE
ELECTORATE TO DECIDE HOW
LEGITIMATE HE IS.

>> Rooney: SOMEBODY WHO RAN
A HUGE OPERATION, A HUGE
CAMPAIGN WITH MONEY TO DRAW
ON.
WHAT DO YOU DO ABOUT TIM
CAHILL, WITH ABOUT $3
MILLION IN HIS CAMPAIGN
WARCHEST, HE CAN'T FIGHT
BACK AT THE REPUBLICAN
GOVERNOR ASSOCIATION ADS IS
THE SECOND FLIGHT, THEY ARE
SPENDING MILLIONS ON THESE.

>> THEY ARE SENDING WITHIN
MILLION.

>> Rooney: IS THAT.

>> YEAH THAT IS ONE MILLION
IN RADIO AND TV.
THEY HAVE DONE A LOT OF
DAMAGE.

>> Rooney: THAT WOULD BE A
THIRD OF HIS BANK ACCOUNT
THOUGH.
HE WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO
COUNTER THAT.

>> HE HAS $3 MILLION IN THE
BANK.

>> 3.5 WEDNESDAY HAS TO MAKE
THE DECISION WHETHER HE
WANTS TO SPEND IT NO AND AS
YOU SAY TRY TO CONTROL SOME
OF THIS DAMAGE THAT IS BEING
DONE TO HIS EARLY IMAGE OR
WAIT TILL THE END.
I WOULD PROBABLY RECOMMEND
HE WAITS TO THE END BUT IT
MAY BE TOO LATE.
IT MAY BE TOO LATE.

>> WHICH WOULD RECOMMEND
HE-- I WOULDN'T SAY SPEND A
MILLION NOW BUT I WOULD SAY
YOU GOT TO SPEND $250,000
OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AND
250,000 IN SQNT WEEKS AFTER
THAT.
THEY WILL HAVE MORE OF AN
IMPACT NOW BECAUSE THERE IS
NO OTHER POLITICAL ADS UP
THERE.
THE RGA I GOT TO BELIEVE,
THE REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR
ASSOCIATION ISN'T GOING TO
SPEND MILLIONS AND MILLIONS
OF DOLLARS IN MASSACHUSETTS.
THEY ARE SPENDING A LOT BUT
I DON'T THINK THEY ARE GOING
TO SPEND MILLIONS AND
MILLIONS.

>> I CAN'T GUESS HOW MUCH
THEY GOING TO SPEND BUT I
CAN TELL YOU THAT THEY USE
THIS SAME TACK TIM-- TACTIC
THIS SAME APPROACH IN NEW
JERSEY IN THE COUNTRIESth --
KRISTI RACE THERE WAS AN
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE THERE
AND THEY TRIED TO MAKE IT
CLEAR THAT THE INDEPENDENT
CANDIDATE WAS SIMPLY A VOTE
FOR CORZINE.
THE DEMOCRAT IN THE RACE AND
THEY WERE ABLE TO KNOCK THAT
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE OUT
EARLY ON SO THAT IT BECAME A
TWO-PERSON RACE AT THE END.
AND CHRISTY WAS ABLE TO
CLIN.
SO I THINK THIS IS A
PLAYBOOK, IF YOU WILL, THAT
THEY HAVE USED BEFORE AND IT
WAS VERY EFFECTIVE.

>> LITTLE DIFFERENCE, TIM
CAHILL IS AN EIGHT-YEAR
STATEWIDE ELECTED OFFICIAL
AND HE HAS THREE AND A HALF
MILLION DOLLARS IN THE BANK.
HE'S NOT GOING AWAY.
HE'S GOING TO, FROM
SEPTEMBER TO NOVEMBER,
WHATEVER THE ELECTION DATE
IS, HE'S GOING TO BE UP ON
THE AIRWAVES ALL THE TIME.
THERE IS-- ENOUGH STAYING
POWER THERE THAT HE WILL BE
A FACTOR.

>> Rooney: GOVERNOR PATRICK
IS GETTING REALLY POSITIVE
PRESS OUT OF THE CURRENT
NEWS CYCLE.
THE WATER ISSUE, HE'S GOT
VERY, VERY HIGH MARKS.
THIS INCIDENT TODAY, THE
GOVERNOR IS FRONT AND
CENTER.
I'VE BEEN BRIEFED.
I KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING.
HE HELD A PRESS CONFERENCE
WITH ALL THESE LAW
ENFORCEMENT PEOPLE.
HE'S IN THE NATURAL NEWS
CYCLE WHICH, THERE IS
NOTHING YOU CAN CRITICIZE
HIM FOR ON THIS, YOU KNOW.

>> NO, HE'S DOING HIS JOB.
THAT'S WHAT HE IS THERE TO
DO.
BUT THERE'S A LIMIT I
BELIEVE TO THE SUPPORT THAT
PATRICK WILL ENJOY.
AND WHILE IT MAY LOOK A BIT
LIKE SOME OF THOSE FOLKS WHO
LEFT CAHILL, WENT OVER TO
PATRICK, I BELIEVE LIKE YOU
DO THAT A LOT OF THIS IS
JUST A NATURAL FUNCTION OF
PATRICK BEING OUT THERE,
LEADING IN A TIME OF CRISIS.
SO THAT'S-- .

>> Rooney: THAT OFTEN
CREATEANCE UPTICK.

>> BUT ALSO CHARLIE BAKER'S
NUMBERS WENT UP THIS PASTIME
AS WELL AND CHARLIE AS
PEOPLE GET TO KNOW HIM HIS
NUMBERS HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERABLY GOING.

>> THEY GO UP, YOU CAN'T GET
POSITIVE.

>> BUT CHARLIE IS
CONSISTENTLY GOING UP AND
HE'S CONSISTENTLY RAISING
MONEY AND I THINK THAT WE'RE
GOING TO SEE A VERY SLOW,
STEADY PROGRESSION IN HIS
FAVOR.

>> CHARLIE IS NOW WHERE HE
WAS ABOUT SIX WEEKS AGO.
HE DIPPED AND NOW HE'S BACK
UP TO WHERE HE WAS ABOUT SIX
WEEKS AGO.
SO HE WAS SORT OF FLAT LINED
OVER THE LAST SIX WEEKS.
THE INTERESTING THING I
THINK IS THE DEVAL PATRICK
COMPONENT OF THIS.
FRANKLY HE REMINDED ME OF
YOU AND YOUR RUNNING MATE,
MITT ROMNEY WHEN THE TUNNEL
COLLAPSED.
TOOK CHARGE, THE PRESS
CONFERENCE WAS RIGHT ON TOP
OF THINGS AND WAS VERY
IMPRESSIVE BY BOTH OF YOU.
AND DEVAL PATRICK, THE
TUNNEL IS IMPORTANT.
BUT WATER FOR 2.1 MILLION
PEOPLE IS CRUCIAL.
AND HE, IT WAS A VERY
HIGH-RISK STRATEGY.
HE WAS THERE SATURDAY,
SUNDAY.

>> Rooney: GOOD THING HE WAS
IN TOWN.
I AGREE.

>> THANKFULLY FOR DEVAL
PATRICK AND FOR THE PEOPLE
OF THE DISTRICT.

>> Rooney: INTERESTING.
KERRY HEALEY, WARREN TOLMAN,
THANKS SO MUCH.
WHEN WE CONTINUE, WEEKEND
TIPS WITH CENTER STAGE.